Flow‐dependent predictability of the North Atlantic jet
Flow‐dependent predictability of the North Atlantic jet
复制标题
北大西洋急流与流量相关的可预测性
DOI：
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Maarten H. P. Ambaum
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. Frame;J. Methven;Suzanne L. Gray;Maarten H. P. Ambaum
北大西洋涡动驱动急流是北方大尺度气流的主要组成部分。在这里，我们提出的证据，从再分析和集合预报数据的系统流依赖的可预测性的急流在北方半球冬季（DJF）。结果发现，当喷流减弱或分裂时，它的持续性和可预测性都较低。可预报性的缺乏表现为当喷流变弱时集合预报成员的瞬时传播速率异常大。这表明，随着喷流减弱或分裂，它进入一种对集合预报成员之间的微小差异更敏感的状态，就像洛伦兹吸引子翅膀之间的敏感区域一样。
The North Atlantic eddy‐driven jet is a major component of the large‐scale flow in the northern hemisphere. Here we present evidence from reanalysis and ensemble forecast data for systematic flow‐dependent predictability of the jet during northern hemisphere winter (DJF). It is found that when the jet is weakened or split, it is both less persistent and less predictable. The lack of predictability manifests itself as the onset of an anomalously large instantaneous rate of spread of ensemble forecast members as the jet becomes weakened. This suggests that, as the jet weakens or splits, it enters into a state more sensitive to small differences between ensemble forecast members, rather like the sensitive region between the wings of the Lorenz attractor.
影响因子：
3.1
作者：
Franzke, Christian;Woollings, Tim;Martius, Olivia
通讯作者：
Martius, Olivia