Sources of Bias in Voter Expectations under Proportional Representation
Sources of Bias in Voter Expectations under Proportional Representation
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比例代表制下选民期望偏差的来源
DOI：
10.1080/17457280701617060
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发表时间：
2007
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Renan Levine
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Renan Levine
摘要最近的研究发现，选民在产生对选举结果的预期时，会使用有关最新民意调查的信息。尽管2002年荷兰议会选举研究的许多受访者能够准确地回忆起最新的民意调查，误差在几个席位之内，但选民的回忆并不完美。使用两阶段最小二乘回归分析，我们发现党派一厢情愿的想法夸大了受访者认为该党在最新民意调查中获得的席位数量，间接增加了受访者预测该党将在选举日赢得的席位数量。这些党派偏见也对预测产生了单独的直接影响。这些有偏见的期望并没有因为政治知识水平的提高而减轻。我们的结论是，荷兰选民之间的一厢情愿有很强的认知成分的基础上有偏见的回忆信息。
Abstract Recent studies have found that voters use information about the latest polls when generating expectations about election outcomes. Even though many respondents to the 2002 Dutch Parliamentary Election Study can recall the latest polls accurately to within a few seats, voters' recollections are imperfect. Using a two‐stage least squares regression analysis, we find that partisan wishful thinking inflates the number of seats the respondent thinks the party received in the latest polls, indirectly increasing the number of seats the respondent predicts the party will win on election day. These partisan biases also exert a separate, direct effect on predictions. These biased expectations were not mitigated by increased levels of political knowledge. We conclude that wishful thinking among Dutch voters has a strong cognitive component based on biased recall of information.