Enhanced future vegetation growth with elevated carbon dioxide concentrations could increase fire activity
Enhanced future vegetation growth with elevated carbon dioxide concentrations could increase fire activity
复制标题
DOI：
10.1038/s43247-024-01228-7
复制
发表时间：
2024-01
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Robert J. Allen;James Gomez;L. W. Horowitz;E. Shevliakova
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Robert J. Allen;James Gomez;L. W. Horowitz;E. Shevliakova
近几十年来，地球上的许多地区经历了火灾活动的增加。尽管这种增长与持续气候变化下的变暖和干燥是一致的，但驱动机制仍然不确定。在这里，我们使用七个地球系统模型研究大气二氧化碳浓度增加对未来火灾活动的影响。以二氧化碳倍增时间为中心，火灾碳排放的多模型平均百分比变化为66.4 ± 38.8%(在固定的1850土地利用条件下，二氧化碳浓度为1850)。大幅增加与二氧化碳生物地球化学影响促进植被生长有关，为60.1 ± 46.9%。相比之下，二氧化碳辐射影响，包括变暖和干燥，对火灾碳排放的响应可以忽略不计，为1.7 ± 9.4%。尽管火灾过程的模型表示仍然不确定，但我们的结果表明，在二氧化碳增加的情况下，植被动态对未来火灾活动增加的重要性，具有潜在的重要政策含义。
Many regions of the planet have experienced an increase in fire activity in recent decades. Although such increases are consistent with warming and drying under continued climate change, the driving mechanisms remain uncertain. Here, we investigate the effects of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations on future fire activity using seven Earth system models. Centered on the time of carbon dioxide doubling, the multi-model mean percent change in fire carbon emissions is 66.4 ± 38.8% (versus 1850 carbon dioxide concentrations, under fixed 1850 land-use conditions). A substantial increase is associated with enhanced vegetation growth due to carbon dioxide biogeochemical impacts at 60.1 ± 46.9%. In contrast, carbon dioxide radiative impacts, including warming and drying, yield a negligible response of fire carbon emissions at 1.7 ± 9.4%. Although model representation of fire processes remains uncertain, our results show the importance of vegetation dynamics to future increases in fire activity under increasing carbon dioxide, with potentially important policy implications.