The role of building models in the evaluation of heat-related risks
The role of building models in the evaluation of heat-related risks
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DOI：
10.5194/nhess-16-963-2016
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发表时间：
2016-01-01
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Ziegler, Felix
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Buchin, Oliver;Jaenicke, Britta;Ziegler, Felix
流行病学研究中的危害-风险关系一般是以室外气候为基础的，尽管人类一生中的大部分时间是在室内度过的。通过将室内和室外气候与建筑模型相结合，开发的风险概念仍然可以基于室外条件，但也包括暴露于室内气候。利用该风险概念，可以合理地评估非线性建筑物理特性和空调对热相关风险的影响，并与传统的风险分析方法进行了比较。例如，使用了2001-2010年德国柏林65岁及以上年龄组的每日和全市死亡率数据。四个具有不同复杂性的建筑模型应用于时间序列回归分析。这项研究表明，室内危害更好地解释了风险数据的变化相比，室外危害，这取决于建筑模型的种类。简化的参数模型包括主要的非线性效应，并提出了时间序列分析。这一概念表明，在传统的灾害风险关系中，热事件、滞后天数和适应性的定义受到当前建筑存量特征的影响。
Hazard-risk relationships in epidemiological studies are generally based on the outdoor climate, despite the fact that most of humans' lifetime is spent indoors. By coupling indoor and outdoor climates with a building model, the risk concept developed can still be based on the outdoor conditions but also includes exposure to the indoor climate. The influence of non-linear building physics and the impact of air conditioning on heat-related risks can be assessed in a plausible manner using this risk concept.For proof of concept, the proposed risk concept is compared to a traditional risk analysis. As an example, daily and city-wide mortality data of the age group 65 and older in Berlin, Germany, for the years 2001-2010 are used. Four building models with differing complexity are applied in a time-series regression analysis. This study shows that indoor hazard better explains the variability in the risk data compared to outdoor hazard, depending on the kind of building model. Simplified parameter models include the main nonlinear effects and are proposed for the time-series analysis. The concept shows that the definitions of heat events, lag days, and acclimatization in a traditional hazard-risk relationship are influenced by the characteristics of the prevailing building stock.