NOx emissions in China: historical trends and future perspectives
NOx emissions in China: historical trends and future perspectives
复制标题
中国氮氧化物排放：历史趋势与未来展望
DOI：
10.5194/acp-13-9869-2013
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发表时间：
2013-01-01
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Amann, M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhao, B.;Wang, S. X.;Amann, M.
氮氧化物（NOx）是改善环境空气质量的关键污染物。在这项研究中，我们估计了1995-2010年期间中国氮氧化物的历史排放量，并计算了六种排放情景下每五年一次的未来氮氧化物排放量，直到2030年。在能源消费快速增长的推动下，我们估计中国的NOx排放量从1995年的11.0 Mt迅速增加到2010年的26.1 Mt。发电厂、工业和交通运输是NOx的主要排放源，分别占2010年NOx排放总量的28.4%、34.0%和25.4%。两种能源情景，业务照常情景（BAU）和替代政策情景（PC），制定了预测未来的能源消费。到2030年，能源消耗总量预计将分别比2010年增长64%和27%。三套终端的污染控制措施，包括基线，渐进式，严格控制的情况下，为每个能源的情况下，从而构成六个排放情景。到2030年，氮氧化物排放总量预计将增加（与2010年相比）36%，而政策案例在最严格的控制措施下减少高达61%。到2030年，在最低和最雄心勃勃的情景之间实现的减排量中，超过三分之一来自电力部门，一半以上平均分布在工业和运输部门之间。选择性催化还原是电厂NOx减排的主要方式，而生活方式的改变、工业锅炉和水泥生产的控制措施是工业减排的主要贡献者。及时执行有关重型车辆的立法将大大有助于减少氮氧化物的排放。2020年约30%的NOx减排量和2030年约40%的NOx减排量可视为节能的附带效益。进行敏感度分析以探讨关键因素对未来排放的影响。
Nitrogen oxides (NOx) are key pollutants for the improvement of ambient air quality. Within this study we estimated the historical NOx emissions in China for the period 1995-2010, and calculated future NOx emissions every five years until 2030 under six emission scenarios. Driven by the fast growth of energy consumption, we estimate the NOx emissions in China increased rapidly from 11.0 Mt in 1995 to 26.1 Mt in 2010. Power plants, industry and transportation were major sources of NOx emissions, accounting for 28.4 %, 34.0 %, and 25.4% of the total NOx emissions in 2010, respectively. Two energy scenarios, a business as usual scenario (BAU) and an alternative policy scenario (PC), were developed to project future energy consumption. In 2030, total energy consumption is projected to increase by 64% and 27% from 2010 level respectively. Three sets of end-of-pipe pollution control measures, including baseline, progressive, and stringent control case, were developed for each energy scenario, thereby constituting six emission scenarios. By 2030, the total NOx emissions are projected to increase (compared to 2010) by 36% in the baseline while policy cases result in reduction up to 61% in the most ambitious case with stringent control measures. More than a third of the reduction achieved by 2030 between least and most ambitious scenario comes from power sector, and more than half is distributed equally between industry and transportation sectors. Selective catalytic reduction dominates the NOx emission reductions in power plants, while life style changes, control measures for industrial boilers and cement production are major contributors to reductions in industry. Timely enforcement of legislation on heavy-duty vehicles would contribute significantly to NOx emission reductions. About 30% of the NOx emission reduction in 2020 and 40% of the NOx emission reduction in 2030 could be treated as the ancillary benefit of energy conservation. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to explore the impact of key factors on future emissions.