From the geopolitics of oil and gas to the geopolitics of the energy transition: Is there a role for European supermajors?
From the geopolitics of oil and gas to the geopolitics of the energy transition: Is there a role for European supermajors?
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DOI：
10.1016/j.erss.2022.102634
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发表时间：
2022-04-28
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Halttunen, Krista
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bricout, Aymeric;Slade, Raphael;Halttunen, Krista
能源转型正在改变欧洲国际石油公司（IOC）的企业定位。2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰和2021年天然气市场波动等事态发展使能源地缘政治成为焦点，并使这些公司的经营环境进一步复杂化。通过结合文献数据和对关键专家的半结构化访谈，这项工作探讨了欧洲国际石油公司对石油、天然气和可再生能源地缘政治的影响如何在转型过程中演变。我们发现，欧洲国际石油公司继续具有地缘政治影响力，但由于国家石油公司的崛起，这种影响力已经减弱。如果化石燃料在全球范围内逐步减少，这些公司石油活动的减少可能会进一步削弱它们的地缘政治力量。虽然欧洲的国际石油公司可能继续活跃在天然气市场，但这不太可能使它们产生重大的地缘政治影响力，因为它们可能成为共同的而不是主导的市场参与者。国际奥委会在可再生能源市场中的作用也是如此，尽管欧洲的国际奥委会可能会通过成为重要的中介机构和全球专家来寻求获得更大的影响力。随着能源转型的进展，许多专家预计，围绕能源的政治和市场格局将变得更加分散，从而降低国际石油公司的整体地缘政治影响力。最近发生的事件，如乌克兰战争，并没有改变总体结论，尽管它们是否会减缓或加快国际奥委会参与能源转型还有待观察。
The energy transition is changing the corporate positioning of European international oil companies (IOCs). Developments such as Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the gas market volatility of 2021 have brought energy geopolitics to the fore and further complicated the landscape in which these companies operate. By combining data from literature and semi-structured interviews with key experts, this work explores how the influence of the European IOCs on the geopolitics of oil, gas, and renewable energy sources might evolve in the transition. We find that European IOCs continue to have geopolitical influence, but it has been diminished by the rise of national oil companies. If fossil fuels are phased down globally, the reduction in oil activities of these companies is likely to further reduce their geopolitical power. While European IOCs may continue to be active in the gas market, this is unlikely to render them significant geopolitical influence given that they may become common rather than dominant market players. The same is true for the IOCs' role in renewable energy markets, although here European IOCs may seek to gain more influence by becoming significant intermediaries and global experts. As the energy transition progresses, many experts expect the political and market landscape around energy to become more fragmented, reducing the overall geopolitical influence of IOCs. Recent events such as the war in Ukraine do not change the overall conclusions, although it remains to be seen whether they will slow down or speed up the IOCs' involvement in the energy transition.