Future trends in cystic fibrosis demography in 34 European countries
Future trends in cystic fibrosis demography in 34 European countries
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DOI：
10.1183/09031936.00196314
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发表时间：
2015-07-01
影响因子：
24.3
通讯作者：
Elborn, J. Stuart
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Burgel, Pierre-Regis;Bellis, Gil;Elborn, J. Stuart
在过去的六十年里，囊性纤维化（CF）患者的中位生存率有所增加，这导致了CF成年患者数量的增加。尚未评估CF人口统计学变化的未来影响。这项研究的目的是估计到2025年34个欧洲国家的儿童和成人CF的数量。数据来自欧洲囊性纤维化协会患者登记处。通过模拟登记队列中未来的入组和退出流量，对具有广泛CF人群覆盖率和至少4年纵向数据的国家进行人群预测。西欧国家的预测表明，到2025年，CF患者总数将增加约50%，儿童和成人将分别增加20%和75%。在东欧国家，预测表明，CF儿童人口的增长占主导地位，尽管CF成人人口也将增加，得出的结论是，预计未来十年CF成人人口将大幅增加。迫切需要在整个欧洲大幅度增加成人CF服务。
Median survival has increased in people with cystic fibrosis (CF) during the past six decades, which has led to an increased number of adults with CF. The future impact of changes in CF demographics has not been evaluated. The aim of this study was to estimate the number of children and adults with CF in 34 European countries by 2025.Data were obtained from the European Cystic Fibrosis Society Patient Registry. Population forecasts were performed for countries that have extensive CF population coverage and at least 4 years of longitudinal data by modelling future entering and exiting flows in registry cohorts. For the other countries, population projections were performed based on assumptions from knowledge of current CF epidemiology.Western European countries' forecasts indicate that an increase in the overall number of CF patients by 2025, by approximately 50%, corresponds to an increase by 20% and by 75% in children and adults, respectively. In Eastern European countries the projections suggest a predominant increase in the CF child population, although the CF adult population would also increase.It was concluded that a large increase in the adult CF population is expected in the next decade. A significant increase in adult CF services throughout Europe is urgently required.