Loss Estimates for a Puente Hills Blind-Thrust Earthquake in Los Angeles, California
Loss Estimates for a Puente Hills Blind-Thrust Earthquake in Los Angeles, California
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加利福尼亚州洛杉矶普恩特山盲冲地震的损失估计
DOI：
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发表时间：
2005
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
K. Campbell
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
E. Field;H. Seligson;N. Gupta;Vipin Gupta;T. Jordan;K. Campbell
基于OpenSHA和HAZUS-MH，我们提出了最近确定的洛杉矶下的普恩特山盲冲断层的地震破裂的损失估计。考虑到一系列可能的震级和地面运动模型，并假设一个完整的断层破裂，我们估计总的经济损失在820亿美元和2520亿美元之间。这一范围不仅大大高于此前估计的690亿美元，而且还意味着这一事件将是美国历史上损失最大的灾难。分析还提供了以下预测：3，000 - 18，000人死亡，142，000 - 735，000户流离失所，42，000 - 211，000人需要短期公共住所，产生30，000 - 99，000吨碎片。最后，我们表明，地面运动模型的选择可能比地震震级更有影响力，减少这种认识上的不确定性（例如，通过模型改进和（或）剔除）可将损失估计的不确定性减少到原来的两倍。我们注意到，一个完整的普恩特山断层破裂是一个罕见的事件（每103000年一次），其他地震源也构成了重大风险。
Based on OpenSHA and HAZUS-MH, we present loss estimates for an earthquake rupture on the recently identified Puente Hills blind-thrust fault beneath Los Angeles. Given a range of possible magnitudes and ground motion models, and presuming a full fault rupture, we estimate the total economic loss to be between $82 and $252 billion. This range is not only considerably higher than a previous estimate of $69 billion, but also implies the event would be the costliest disaster in U.S. history. The analysis has also provided the following predictions: 3,000–18,000 fatalities, 142,000–735,000 displaced households, 42,000–211,000 in need of short-term public shelter, and 30,000–99,000 tons of debris generated. Finally, we show that the choice of ground motion model can be more influential than the earthquake magnitude, and that reducing this epistemic uncertainty (e.g., via model improvement and/or rejection) could reduce the uncertainty of the loss estimates by up to a factor of two. We note that a full Puente Hills fault rupture is a rare event (once every ∼3,000 years), and that other seismic sources pose significant risk as well.