W(h)ither the Drake equation?
W(h)ither the Drake equation?
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DOI：
10.1017/s1473550406003107
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发表时间：
2006-07-01
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
Burchell, Mark J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Burchell, Mark J.
40多年来，被称为德雷克方程的形式主义帮助指导了关于外星智慧生命与我们联系的可能性的猜测。自从这个方程被提出以来，天文学和天体物理学都取得了重大的进展，足以让我们回顾一下德雷克方程的重要性。这个等式本身就是一系列的术语，当它们结合在一起时，就可以对与外星智能接触的可能性进行知情的讨论。然而，虽然它具有数学形式（即一系列项相乘在一起以给出总概率），但最好不要将其理解为严格数学意义上的等式。一些术语具有物理上可量化的、基于数字的含义（例如，G.有些是从天文学获得的），有些是社会性的，因为它们描述了社会的行为和演变，因此在本质上更具社会科学性，如果不观察一组社会，就不能真正加以评估。最初，几乎所有的术语都必须根据知情的猜测或信念进行估计。然而，自20世纪60年代初以来，许多先验的科学术语本身最初是如此不确定，以至于需要通过猜测工作或信念来估计，现在或很快就会从当前或计划中的天文项目中直接测量。这使得非科学术语成为它们自己的一个独特类别，仍然只能通过讨论进行分析。因此，观测天文学几乎已经赶上了德雷克方程的部分，并将很快量化方程的纯物理科学部分。社会部分（关于智能社会等）仍然是先验不可知的。此外，天体生物学（即研究宇宙中生命的学科）的发展如此之快，以至于与智能生命的交流现在越来越被视为一个更大学科的一小部分。在不久的将来，我们可能会直接通过观测获得关于银河系附近是否存在生命本身（地球上除外）的知识。这种知识将对人类产生深远的影响，并且将在没有德雷克方程所设想的交流形式的情况下获得。
For over 40 years the formalism known as the Drake equation has helped guide speculation about the likelihood of intelligent extraterrestrial life contacting us. Since the equation was formulated there have been significant advances in astronomy and astrophysics, sufficient to merit a review of the significance of the Drake equation. The equation itself is as a series of terms which, when combined, allow an informed discussion of the likelihood of contact with an alien intelligence. However, whilst it has a mathematical form (i.e. a series of terms multiplied together to give an overall probability) it is best understood not as an equation in the strictly mathematical sense. Some of the terms have a physically quantifiable, numerically based meaning (e. g. obtainable from astronomy) and some are more social in content in that they describe the behaviour and evolution of societies and thus are more social science in nature and not truly estimable without observation of a set of societies. Initially, almost all the terms had to be estimated based on informed guesswork or belief. However, in the intervening period since the early 1960s, many of the a priori scientific terms which were themselves initially so uncertain as to require estimation by guess work or belief are now, or will soon be, directly measurable from current or planned astronomical projects. This leaves the non-scientific terms as a distinct class of their own, still subject to analysis only by discussion. Thus observational astronomy has nearly caught up with parts of the Drake equation and will soon quantify the purely physical science parts of the equation. The social parts (concerning intelligent societies, etc.) are still a priori unknowable. In addition, the growth of the subject called astrobiology (i.e. the study of life in the Universe) has developed so fast that communicating with intelligent life is now increasingly seen as just one small part of a much larger discipline. The knowledge as to whether there is life per se (apart from on Earth) in our galactic neighbourhood may be obtainable in the near future directly from observation. Such knowledge will have a profound impact on mankind and will be obtained without the form of communication envisaged by the Drake equation.