The puzzle of migrant labour shortage and rural labour surplus in China
The puzzle of migrant labour shortage and rural labour surplus in China
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中国农民工短缺与农村劳动力剩余之谜
DOI：
10.1016/j.chieco.2011.01.006
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发表时间：
2011-12-01
影响因子：
6.8
通讯作者：
Li Shi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Knight, John;Deng Quheng;Li Shi
这篇文章探讨了中国剩余劳动力的程度这一有争议的问题。中国是劳动力过剩经济的极端例子，但经济改革时期的经济快速增长需要重新评估刘易斯模型的第二阶段是否已经达到或即将到来。这部文学作品没有定论。一方面，有报告称，移徙工人稀缺，而移徙工人工资却在上涨；另一方面，估计数字表明，农村部门仍有相当数量的相对不熟练的劳动力。然而，答案具有深远的发展和分配影响。在文献回顾的基础上，本文利用中国社会科学院2002年和2007年的全国户籍调查数据，对农民工的工资行为进行了分析和解释，预测了农民工流动的决定因素，并考察了潜在城乡流动人口的规模和性质。还试图在2005年1%人口调查的基础上，预测到2020年城乡劳动力和移徙情况。本文的结论是，由于制度原因，目前和未来一段时间内，这两种现象可能会共存。(C)2011 Elsevier Inc.保留所有权利。
The paper examines the contentious issue of the extent of surplus labour that remains in China. China was an extreme example of a surplus labour economy, but the rapid economic growth during the period of economic reform requires a reassessment of whether the second stage of the Lewis model has been reached or is imminent. The literature is inconclusive. On the one hand, there are reports of migrant labour scarcity and rising migrant wages; on the other hand, estimates suggest that a considerable pool of relatively unskilled labour is still available in the rural sector. Yet the answer has far-reaching developmental and distributional implications. After reviewing the literature, the paper uses the 2002 and 2007 national household surveys of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences to analyse and explain migrant wage behaviour, to predict the determinants of migration, and to examine the size and nature of the pool of potential rural-urban migrants. An attempt is also made to project the rural and urban labour force and migration forward to 2020, on the basis of the 2005 1% Population Survey. The paper concludes that for institutional reasons both phenomena are likely to coexist at present and for some time in the future. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.