Economic Agents as Imperfect Problem Solvers

Economic Agents as Imperfect Problem Solvers
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经济主体作为不完美的问题解决者

DOI:
10.1093/qje/qjac027
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发表时间:
2022
期刊:
The Quarterly Journal of Economics
影响因子:
--
通讯作者:
Valchev, Rosen
Valchev, Rosen
中科院分区:
--
文献类型:
--
作者:
Ilut, Cosmin;Valchev, Rosen

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我们开发了一个新的有限理性模型的不完美的推理之间的互动自动(系统1)和分析(系统2)的思维。在这样做的时候,我们正式的认知心理学的经验共识,使用一个结构性的,约束最优的经济框架的心理信息采集的未知的最优政策功能。一个关键的结果是,代理人的理由少(更多)时,面对世界的通常(不寻常)状态,产生状态和历史依赖的行为。我们的应用程序是一个标准的不完全市场模型,没有先验的行为偏差。行为和信念的遍历分布的特点是内生学习陷阱,在局部稳定的状态动力学产生熟悉的区域的状态空间内的行为似乎遵循基于记忆的记忆。这导致了内生行为偏差,这些行为偏差具有许多经验上可取的性质:即使对于不受约束的代理人,边际消费倾向也很高,勉强糊口的状况更频繁和持久,财富不平等比标准模型更严重。
We develop a novel bounded rationality model of imperfect reasoning as the interaction between automatic (System 1) and analytical (System 2) thinking. In doing so, we formalize the empirical consensus of cognitive psychology using a structural, constrained-optimal economic framework of mental information acquisition about the unknown optimal policy function. A key result is that agents reason less (more) when facing usual (unusual) states of the world, producing state- and history-dependent behavior. Our application is an otherwise standard incomplete-markets model with no a priori behavioral biases. The ergodic distribution of actions and beliefs is characterized by endogenous learning traps, where locally stable state dynamics generate familiar regions of the state space within which behavior appears to follow memory-based heuristics. This results in endogenous behavioral biases that have many empirically desirable properties: the marginal propensity to consume is high even for unconstrained agents, hand-to-mouth status is more frequent and persistent, and there is more wealth inequality than in the standard model.
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