NONLINEAR DYNAMICS AND CHAOS IN HYDROLOGY
NONLINEAR DYNAMICS AND CHAOS IN HYDROLOGY
复制标题
水文学中的非线性动力学和混沌
DOI：
10.1142/9789814307987_0009
复制
发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
R. Berndtsson
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
B. Sivakumar;R. Berndtsson
近二十年来，非线性动力学和混沌理论在水文系统和过程中的应用呈上升趋势。这些理论的早期应用主要集中在研究和预测降雨和河流流动动力学中的混沌。随后的几年见证了它们在其他目的（如数据分解、缺失数据估计、系统方程重建）和其他过程（如降雨径流、沉积物运输）中的应用。最近，通过它们在尺度、地下水污染、参数估计和集水区分类等问题上的应用取得了额外的进展。这些研究的结果当然是令人鼓舞的，特别是考虑到水文科学概念的探索阶段。本章的目的是：(1)全面回顾非线性动力学和混沌理论在水文学中的应用；(2)讨论未来的希望和前景以及面临的挑战。关于挑战，特别强调的是讨论需要提高我们对这些基本上不太了解的概念的理解，并找到适当的方法将它们与已经存在或正在出现的其他概念结合起来。由于认识到现有的片面的“极端观点”建模方法都无法解决水文问题，因此迫切需要一种平衡的“中间立场”方法，可以整合不同的方法。
During the last two decades, applications of nonlinear dynamic and chaos theories to hydrologic systems and processes have been on the rise. Early applications of these theories focused mainly on the investigation and prediction of chaos in rainfall and river flow dynamics. Subsequent years witnessed their applications for other purposes (e.g. data disaggregation, missing data estimation, reconstruction of system equations) and to other processes (e.g. rainfall-runoff, sediment transport). More recently, additional inroads have been made through their applications to the problems of scaling, groundwater contamination, parameter estimation, and catchment classification. The outcomes of these studies are certainly encouraging, especially considering the exploratory stage of the concepts in hydrologic sciences. The objectives of this chapter are: (1) to provide a comprehensive review of the applications of nonlinear dynamic and chaos theories in hydrology; and (2) to discuss the hope and scope for the future and also the challenges that lie ahead. In regards to the challenges, particular emphasis is given to discussing the need to improve our understanding of these largely less-understood concepts and to find appropriate ways for integrating them with other concepts that are already in existence or emerging. With the clear recognition that none of the existing one-sided ‘extreme-view’ modeling approaches is capable of solving the hydrologic problems, an urgent call for a balanced ‘middle-ground’ approach that can integrate different methods is also made.