Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift.
Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift.
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DOI：
10.1111/gcb.13106
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发表时间：
2016-02
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Zhu Z
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Reid PC;Hari RE;Beaugrand G;Livingstone DM;Marty C;Straile D;Barichivich J;Goberville E;Adrian R;Aono Y;Brown R;Foster J;Groisman P;Hélaouët P;Hsu HH;Kirby R;Knight J;Kraberg A;Li J;Lo TT;Myneni RB;North RP;Pounds JA;Sparks T;Stübi R;Tian Y;Wiltshire KH;Xiao D;Zhu Z
尽管一些地球系统的证据表明，被称为政权转移的突然的时间变化是重要的，但其性质，规模和机制仍然没有得到充分的记录和了解。通过对72个时间序列进行主成分分析、变点分析和连续t检验分析，我们确认，20世纪80年代的制度转变代表了地球生物物理系统从高层大气到海洋深处以及从北极到南极的重大变化，并且发生在世界各地略有不同的时间。利用耦合模型相互比较项目第5阶段（CMIP 5）的历史气候模型模拟和历史温度的统计建模，我们证明了这一事件是由人类活动和自然强迫的快速全球变暖引发的，后者与El Chichón火山爆发的恢复有关。在这个时候发生的温度变化被假设为一系列突然的环境变化的主要强迫。在上个世纪或更长的时间里，1980年代的事件在全球范围和规模上是独一无二的;我们观察到的后果意味着，如果不可避免的自然事件，如大规模火山爆发，与人为变暖相互作用，可能会发生不可预见的倍增效应。
Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change‐point analysis and a sequential t‐test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth's biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, and occurred at slightly different times around the world. Using historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and statistical modelling of historical temperatures, we then demonstrate that this event was triggered by rapid global warming from anthropogenic plus natural forcing, the latter associated with the recovery from the El Chichón volcanic eruption. The shift in temperature that occurred at this time is hypothesized as the main forcing for a cascade of abrupt environmental changes. Within the context of the last century or more, the 1980s event was unique in terms of its global scope and scale; our observed consequences imply that if unavoidable natural events such as major volcanic eruptions interact with anthropogenic warming unforeseen multiplier effects may occur.