Land use scenarios for England and Wales: evaluation of management options to support ‘good ecological status’ in surface freshwaters
Land use scenarios for England and Wales: evaluation of management options to support ‘good ecological status’ in surface freshwaters
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英格兰和威尔士的土地利用情景：评估支持地表淡水“良好生态状况”的管理方案
DOI：
10.1111/j.1475-2743.2007.00120.x
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发表时间：
2007
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
P. Haygarth
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
P. Johnes;R. Foy;D. Butterfield;P. Haygarth
本文分析了英格兰和威尔士1931年和1991年的农业土地利用和管理的历史记录，并利用输出系数模型来预测这些做法对英格兰和威尔士各主要地理气候区向水体的扩散氮(N)和磷(P)输出速率的影响。主要趋势表明，畜牧业是造成水中农业养分总扩散负荷的一个重要因素，如果要创造适合于根据《水框架指令》维持“良好生态状况”的条件，就需要控制这些来源。该分析突出了衡量营养负荷相对于不同水体特定流域基线状态的变化的重要性。该办法还用于预测广泛的区域规模情景对向水域输出营养物质可能产生的影响，并强调需要停止生产敏感土地，对化肥使用量和种群密度设定上限，并在集约农业与内在养分保持能力低相结合的高风险地区控制农业做法，尽管在解释模型产出时应考虑到与在这一规模上应用的模型相关的不确定性。该文件主张需要一种两级的养分管理方法，将广泛的区域政策与在流域和农场规模的高风险地区进行有针对性的管理相结合。
This paper analyses historic records of agricultural land use and management for England and Wales from 1931 and 1991 and uses export coefficient modelling to hindcast the impact of these practices on the rates of diffuse nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) export to water bodies for each of the major geoclimatic regions of England and Wales. Key trends indicate the importance of animal agriculture as a contributor to the total diffuse agricultural nutrient loading on waters, and the need to bring these sources under control if conditions suitable for sustaining ‘Good Ecological Status’ under the Water Framework Directive are to be generated. The analysis highlights the importance of measuring changes in nutrient loading in relation to the catchment‐specific baseline state for different water bodies. The approach is also used to forecast the likely impact of broad regional scale scenarios on nutrient export to waters and highlights the need to take sensitive land out of production, introduce ceilings on fertilizer use and stocking densities, and controls on agricultural practice in higher risk areas where intensive agriculture is combined with a low intrinsic nutrient retention capacity, although the uncertainties associated with the modelling applied at this scale should be taken into account in the interpretation of model output. The paper advocates the need for a two‐tiered approach to nutrient management, combining broad regional policies with targeted management in high risk areas at the catchment and farm scale.