A criterion validity test of the contingent valuation method: comparing hypothetical and actual voting behavior for a public referendum
A criterion validity test of the contingent valuation method: comparing hypothetical and actual voting behavior for a public referendum
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DOI：
10.1016/s0095-0696(02)00017-7
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发表时间：
2003-05-01
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Kerkvliet, J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Vossler, CA;Kerkvliet, J
本研究通过将调查结果与俄勒冈州Corvallis的公投结果进行比较，以通过增加财产税为河滨改善项目提供资金，从而追求条件估值的外部验证。假设调查对象对即将到来的公投做出投票决定——没有经济后果。调查样本由经核实在选举中投票的受访者组成。我们使用现有的选区级选举数据，比较了“赞成”调查和公投的比例，并根据两组数据估计了投票模型和平均支付意愿（WTP）。我们发现调查结果与实际投票结果相匹配，基于两者的WTP估计没有统计学差异。与类似的研究相反，我们的统计结果并不依赖于将大多数“未决定”的调查回答重新编码为“否”。此外，这种响应的重新编码可能不适合我们的数据集。(C) 2003 Elsevier Science（美国）版权所有。
This study pursues external validation of contingent valuation by comparing survey results with the voting outcome of a Corvallis, Oregon, referendum to fund a riverfront improvement project through increased property taxes. Survey respondents hypothetically make a voting decision-with no financial consequences-on the upcoming referendum. The survey sample consists of respondents verified to have voted in the election. We use available precinct-level election data to compare the proportion of "yes" survey and referendum votes as well as estimate voting models and mean willingness to pay (WTP) based on the two sets of data. We find that survey responses match the actual voting outcome and WTP estimates based on the two are not statistically different. Contrary to similar studies, our statistical results do not depend on re-coding the majority of "undecided" survey responses to "no." Furthermore, such a re-coding of responses may be inappropriate for our data set. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.