Rural household vulnerability and strategies for improvement: an empirical analysis based on time series
Rural household vulnerability and strategies for improvement: an empirical analysis based on time series
复制标题
农户脆弱性及改善策略：基于时间序列的实证分析
DOI：
10.1016/j.habitatint.2015.11.035
复制
发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
6.8
通讯作者：
Wahid Shahriar M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fang Yi-ping;Zhao Chen;Rasul Golam;Wahid Shahriar M.
家庭是农村社会生产和消费的基本单位。分析家庭一级的脆弱性有助于确定家庭面临的威胁以及可能的应对和适应办法，特别是考虑到对气候变化影响的脆弱性日益增加。本文利用时间序列调查数据建立了基于农户的脆弱性评估模型。评估考虑到脆弱性的四个主要方面：生存条件（粮食供应）、发展条件（教育和收入）、水资源的可获得性（降雨量的变化）和水灾威胁（受干旱和洪水影响的地区）。1986年至2012年，农村家庭的脆弱性总体上有所下降，但随着时间的推移波动很大。截至2000年，造成脆弱性的主要因素依次是知识（基础教育）、获得充足食物和可靠的供水。2000年代初之后，知识（基础教育）也是最重要的驱动力，其次是现金收入，再次是可靠的供水。教育和收入的重要性增加与农村家庭的重点从维持生计转向可持续发展有关。由于气候变化，水资源变化的影响似乎变得越来越重要。加快发展农村教育、促进农牧民增收、建设农村水利基础设施、建立农业防灾减灾体系是降低农户脆弱性、提高适应气候变化能力的最有效策略。
Households are the basic units of production and consumption in rural communities. Analyzing vulnerability at the household level can help in identifying the threats that households face and potential coping and adaptation approaches, especially in view of the increasing vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. We developed a household-based model for assessing rural household vulnerability in Shigatze Prefecture in Tibet Autonomous Region of China using time series survey data. The assessment took four main aspects of vulnerability into account: the subsistence condition (food supply), development condition (education and income), accessibility of water resources (variability in rainfall), and threat of water disaster (area affected by drought and floods). Rural household vulnerability decreased overall between 1986 and 2012 but with considerable fluctuation over time. Up to 2000, the main drivers of vulnerability were knowledge (basic education), access to sufficient food, and reliable access to water, in that order. After the early 2000s, knowledge (basic education) is also the most important driver, followed by cash income, and again reliable access to water. The increase in importance of education and income is linked to the transformation of focus of rural households from subsistence to sustainable development. The impact of variability in water resources appears to be becoming more important as a result of climate change. The most effective strategies for reducing rural household vulnerability and improving adaptive capacity to climate change are likely to be accelerating the development of education in rural areas, promoting an incremental increase in the income of farmers and herdsmen, constructing rural irrigation infrastructure, and establishing agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation systems.