Why Is Democracy Performing So Poorly?
Why Is Democracy Performing So Poorly?
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为什么民主表现如此糟糕？
DOI：
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
F. Fukuyama
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
F. Fukuyama
《民主杂志》创刊号的出版略过了塞缪尔·P·亨廷顿所称的民主化“第三次浪潮”的中点，就在柏林墙倒塌之后，前苏联解体前。1南欧和拉丁美洲的大部分转型已经发生，东欧正以令人眼花缭乱的速度远离共产主义，而撒哈拉以南非洲和前苏联的民主转型才刚刚开始。总体而言，在近45年的时间里，全世界在民主化方面取得了显著进展，选举民主国家的数量从1970年的约35个增加到2014年的110多个。但正如拉里·戴蒙德指出的那样，自2006年以来一直存在民主衰退，自由之家的总分每年都在下降。2 2014年对民主不利，欧亚大陆两端的两个威权大国俄罗斯和中国都在行动。2011年的“阿拉伯之春”引发了人们的期望，即阿拉伯对第三次浪潮的例外可能会结束，但在埃及，它已经退化为新的独裁统治，在利比亚、也门和叙利亚，它已经沦为无政府状态，与伊拉克一起，出现了一个新的激进伊斯兰运动--伊拉克与叙利亚伊斯兰国(ISIS)。我们很难知道，我们是否正在经历一场全球范围内普遍的民主运动的短暂挫折，就像股市回调一样，或者今年的事件是否预示着世界政治的更广泛转变，以及真正的民主替代品的崛起。在任何一种情况下，都很难不感觉到
The Journal of Democracy published its inaugural issue a bit past the midpoint of what Samuel P. Huntington labeled the “third wave” of democratization, right after the fall of the Berlin Wall and just before the breakup of the former Soviet Union.1 The transitions in Southern Europe and most of those in Latin America had already happened, and Eastern Europe was moving at dizzying speed away from communism, while the democratic transitions in sub-Saharan Africa and the former USSR were just getting underway. Overall, there has been remarkable worldwide progress in democratization over a period of almost 45 years, raising the number of electoral democracies from about 35 in 1970 to well over 110 in 2014. But as Larry Diamond has pointed out, there has been a democratic recession since 2006, with a decline in aggregate Freedom House scores every year since then.2 The year 2014 has not been good for democracy, with two big authoritarian powers, Russia and China, on the move at either end of Eurasia. The “Arab Spring” of 2011, which raised expectations that the Arab exception to the third wave might end, has degenerated into renewed dictatorship in the case of Egypt, and into anarchy in Libya, Yemen, and also Syria, which along with Iraq has seen the emergence of a new radical Islamist movement, the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS). It is hard to know whether we are experiencing a momentary setback in a general movement toward greater democracy around the world, similar to a stock-market correction, or whether the events of this year signal a broader shift in world politics and the rise of serious alternatives to democracy. In either case, it is hard not to feel that the performance of