Do Climate Models Capture the Tropical Influences on North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Variability
Do Climate Models Capture the Tropical Influences on North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Variability
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DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-11-00205.1
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发表时间：
2011-12
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
F. Lienert;J. Fyfe;W. Merryfield
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
F. Lienert;J. Fyfe;W. Merryfield
本研究评估了全球气候模式再现观测到的热带对北太平洋海表温度变率影响的能力。在气候模式的集合中，研究发现，由于北太平洋冬季和春季的混合层太深，海气反馈太弱，因此模拟的北太平洋对厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）强迫的响应相对于观测到的响应有系统地延迟。混合层深度和海气反馈的模式偏差也与模式平均ENSO相关的信号在北太平洋，其幅度被高估了约30%。该研究还表明，模拟的北太平洋变率在较低的频率比观察到的更大的功率，因为模型误差起源于热带和热带外。这些结果对季节性，年代际和更长的时间尺度上的预测的影响进行了讨论。
AbstractThis study evaluates the ability of global climate models to reproduce observed tropical influences on North Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature variability. In an ensemble of climate models, the study finds that the simulated North Pacific response to El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing is systematically delayed relative to the observed response because of winter and spring mixed layers in the North Pacific that are too deep and air–sea feedbacks that are too weak. Model biases in mixed layer depth and air–sea feedbacks are also associated with a model mean ENSO-related signal in the North Pacific whose amplitude is overestimated by about 30%. The study also shows that simulated North Pacific variability has more power at lower frequencies than is observed because of model errors originating in the tropics and extratropics. Implications of these results for predictions on seasonal, decadal, and longer time scales are discussed.