Regression to the mean: what it is and how to deal with it
Regression to the mean: what it is and how to deal with it
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DOI：
10.1093/ije/dyh299
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发表时间：
2005-02-01
影响因子：
7.7
通讯作者：
Dobson, AJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Barnett, AG;van der Pols, JC;Dobson, AJ
背景均值回归（RTM）是一种统计现象，可以使重复数据中的自然变化看起来像真实的变化。它发生时，异常大或小的测量往往是随后的测量更接近平均值。方法我们给出了一些例子的现象，结果随着测量误差的增加，当后续测量仅在一个子样本上进行时，RTM在样本中的影响变得更加明显。结论RTM是重复数据中普遍存在的现象，应始终被视为观察到的变化的可能原因。通过更好的研究设计和使用适当的统计方法，可以减轻其影响。
Background Regression to the mean (RTM) is a statistical phenomenon that can make natural variation in repeated data look like real change. It happens when unusually large or small measurements tend to be followed by measurements that are closer to the mean.Methods We give some examples of the phenomenon, and discuss methods to overcome it at the design and analysis stages of a study.Results The effect of RTM in a sample becomes more noticeable with increasing measurement error and when follow-up measurements are only examined on a sub-sample selected using a baseline value.Conclusions RTM is a ubiquitous phenomenon in repeated data and should always be considered as a possible cause of an observed change. Its effect can be alleviated through better study design and use of suitable statistical methods.