On the Effect of Vaccination, Screening and Treatment in Controlling Typhoid Fever Spread Dynamics: Deterministic and Stochastic Applications
On the Effect of Vaccination, Screening and Treatment in Controlling Typhoid Fever Spread Dynamics: Deterministic and Stochastic Applications
复制标题
疫苗接种、筛查和治疗在控制伤寒传播动态中的作用：确定性和随机性应用
DOI：
10.13189/ms.2020.080601
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
A. Olubiyi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. Ogunlade;O. Ogunmiloro;S. Ogunyebi;Grace Ebunoluwa Fatoyinbo;J. O. Okoro;O. R. Akindutire;O. Halid;A. Olubiyi
这项工作涉及描述伤寒感染在人类宿主社区中传播的确定性和随机模型，模型的建立考虑了易感出生者和移民的疫苗接种以及携带者和感染者的筛查和治疗。给出并分析了确定性模型的适定性和基本再生数Rtyp的计算。将确定性模型进一步转化为随机模型，得到模型的漂移部分和扩散部分，并讨论随机模型的存在性和唯一性。涉及Rtyp模型参数的数值模拟表明，对易感出生者和移民涌入的疫苗接种以及对携带者和感染者的筛查和治疗可以有效地将阈值Rtyp（Rtyp）≈0.7944）降低到1以下，而其他模拟的结果表明需要实施更多的卫生政策，因为随着时间的推移，随着疫苗接种的减弱，可能无法保证低Rtyp。此外，使用计算软件 MATLAB 对描述整个人类宿主群落中的人类个体子群体的随机模型方程进行了数值模拟。
This work concerns a deterministic and stochastic model describing the transmission of typhoid fever infection in human host community, where the vaccination of susceptible births and immigrants as well as screening and treatment of carriers and infected individuals are considered in the model build - up. The well-posedness and computation of the basic reproduction number Rtyp of the deterministic model are obtained and analysed. The deterministic model is further transformed into a stochastic model, where the drift and diffusion parts of the model are obtained, and the existence and uniqueness of the stochastic model are discussed. Numerical simulations involving the model parameters of Rtyp showed that vaccination of susceptible births and influx of immigrants as well as screening and treatment of carriers and infected humans are effective in bringing the threshold Rtyp(Rtyp)≈0.7944) below 1, and the results of other simulations suggest more health policies are to be implemented, as low Rtyp may not be guaranteed because vaccination wanes over time. In addition, the numerical simulations of the stochastic model equations describing the sub - population of human individuals in the total human host community are carried out using the computational software MATLAB.