Characterizing superspreading events and age-specific infectiousness of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Georgia, USA
Characterizing superspreading events and age-specific infectiousness of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Georgia, USA
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2011802117
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发表时间：
2020-09-08
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Lopman, Ben
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Lau, Max S. Y.;Grenfell, Bryan;Lopman, Ben
必须提高我们对SARS-COV-2传播（例如年龄特异性的传染性和超级传播）中异质性的理解。为此，重要的是要利用大流行期间大量可用的多个数据流。在本文中，我们制定了一个个体级时空机械框架，以将单个监视数据与地理位置数据集成并汇总迁移率数据，从而使人们对SARS-COV-2的传输动力学有更详细的了解。我们分析了佐治亚州五个（城市和农村）县的3月至2020年5月初之间的案件。首先，我们的结果表明，在现场订单后约2周中的生殖数减少到低于一个。超级广播似乎在时空和时空中广泛存在，并且在推动农村地区的爆发方面可能具有特别重要的作用，并且在城市和农村环境中的爆发阶段越来越重要。总体而言，约有2％的病例直接造成所有感染的20％。我们估计受感染的无遗体病例（
It is imperative to advance our understanding of heterogeneities in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 such as age-specific infectiousness and superspreading. To this end, it is important to exploit multiple data streams that are becoming abundantly available during the pandemic. In this paper, we formulate an individual-level spatiotemporal mechanistic framework to integrate individual surveillance data with geolocation data and aggregate mobility data, enabling a more granular understanding of the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. We analyze reported cases, between March and early May 2020, in five (urban and rural) counties in the state of Georgia. First, our results show that the reproductive number reduced to below one in about 2 wk after the shelter-in-place order. Superspreading appears to be widespread across space and time, and it may have a particularly important role in driving the outbreak in rural areas and an increasing importance toward later stages of outbreaks in both urban and rural settings. Overall, about 2% of cases were directly responsible for 20% of all infections. We estimate that the infected nonelderly cases (