Commercial Property Price Indexes for Tokyo-Transaction-Based Index, Appraisal-Based Index and Present Value Index-
Commercial Property Price Indexes for Tokyo-Transaction-Based Index, Appraisal-Based Index and Present Value Index-
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东京商业地产价格指数-交易指数、评估指数、现值指数-
DOI：
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Tsutomu Watanabe
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Shimizu Chihiro;W. Diewert;Watanabe Tsutomu;C. Shimizu;Tsutomu Watanabe
虽然商业地产价格的波动对经济体系产生巨大影响，但能够反映这些波动的相关统计数据的发展是最落后的领域之一。其原因是，与住房相比，商业地产具有高度的异质性，并且存在极其严重的数据局限性。本研究以东京写字楼市场为对象，利用房地产市场的数据推算了商业地产价格指数，并根据计算方法的不同，对商业地产价格指数的差异进行了澄清。具体而言，我们使用J-REITs市场的物业评估价格和交易价格，使用特征价格法估计了质量调整价格指数。此外，我们还尝试使用来自房地产的收入和贴现率，根据现值模型估算价格指数。在此，我们沿着了决定房地产评估价格和交易价格的折现率，并使用从J-REIT投资市场可获得的企业价值计算了折现率，进而推算了风险溢价。首先，研究结果表明，与股票市场形成的风险溢价相比，确定房地产评估价格的风险溢价变化较为平缓，在市场收缩时调整速度尤其缓慢。因此，这些价格只会缓慢下降。此外，在雷曼冲击之前，由股票市场形成的房地产市场风险溢价比决定房地产评估价格和交易价格时设定的风险溢价低，但在雷曼冲击之后，两者的风险溢价趋于一致。
While fluctuations in commercial property prices have an enormous impact on economic systems, the development of related statistics that can capture these fluctuations is one of the areas that is lagging the furthest behind. The reasons for this are that, in comparison to housing, commercial property has a high level of heterogeneity and there are extremely significant data limitations. Focusing on the Tokyo office market, this study estimated commercial property price indexes using the data available in the property market, and clarified discrepancies in commercial property price indexes based on differences in the method used to create them. Specifically, we estimated a qualityadjusted price index with the hedonic price method using property appraisal prices and transaction prices available for the J-REIT market. In addition, we attempted to estimate a price index based on a present value model using revenues arising from property and discount rates. Here, along with the discount rates underlying the determination of property appraisal prices and transaction prices, we obtained discount rates using enterprise values that can be acquired from the J-REIT investment market, and estimated the respective risk premiums. First, the findings showed that, compared to risk premiums formed by the stock market, risk premiums when determining property appraisal prices change only relatively gradually, with the adjustment speed being especially slow while the market is contracting. As a result, these prices decline only slowly. They also showed that until the Lehman Shock, property market risk premiums formed by the stock market were at a lower level than risk premiums set when determining property appraisal prices and transaction prices, but following the Lehman Shock, the respective risk premiums converged toward the same level.
东京的房价：享乐主义和重复销售措施的比较
DOI：
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发表时间：
2010
期刊：
Journal of Economics and Statistics
影响因子：
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作者：
C. Shimizu;K. G. Nishimura;T. Watanabe
通讯作者：
T. Watanabe
评估土地价格信息的偏差：以日本为例
DOI：
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发表时间：
2006
期刊：
Journal of Property Investment ＆ Finance 24(2)
影响因子：
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作者：
東貞成;佐藤浩章;加藤雅信;浅見泰司;Chihiro Shimizu
通讯作者：
Chihiro Shimizu