Evaluation of a high-resolution historical simulation over China: climatology and extremes
Evaluation of a high-resolution historical simulation over China: climatology and extremes
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s00382-014-2452-6
复制
发表时间：
2015-10
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Entao Yu;Jianqi Sun;Huopo Chen;W. Xiang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Entao Yu;Jianqi Sun;Huopo Chen;W. Xiang
中国在未来几十年面临着日益严峻的水资源挑战；因此，高度自信的气候预测对中国的未来尤为重要。在本文中，我们根据多个观测资料和相应的历史模拟，评估了中国上空长时间高分辨率连续模拟的性能。模拟结果表明，气候跨学科研究模式5驱动的天气研究和预报模式能较好地模拟中国上空的温度分布和变化，尤其是对区域特征的模拟。与MIROC5相比，WRF能较好地再现中国大陆及次区域降水的空间分布、年周期、概率分布和季节演变。这一趋势在未来的预测估计中具有重要意义，而WRF在模拟年平均降水趋势方面表现出了更好的技巧。但在数值模拟中，对中国东南部地区的降水存在高估，而对中国中纬地区的降水存在负估计，这与这些地区大气环流和水汽输送的模式偏差有关。选择了几个极端气候指数来进一步评估模式在模拟极端气候方面的性能，与MIROC5相比，WRF能够以更好的模式技巧很好地再现主要特征。这表明动力降尺度技术的必要性和区域气候模拟在未来中国区域气候预测中的稳健性。
China faces an increasing challenge in water resources in the coming decades; thus high-confidence climate projection is of particular importance for the country’s future. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of a long high-resolution continuous simulation over China based on multiple observations and the corresponding historical simulation. The simulation is completed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model driven by the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 5 (MIROC5) in the context of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The results show that both MIROC5 and WRF can capture the distribution and variability of temperature over China, whereas WRF shows improvements, particularly for simulation of regional features. Compared with MIROC5, WRF can reproduce the spatial distribution, annual cycle, probability distribution, and seasonal evolution of the precipitation over mainland China and the sub-regions with better performance. The trend is of fundamental importance in the future projection estimations, and WRF shows better skill in simulating the annual mean precipitation trend. However, there is overestimation of precipitation in Southeast China while negative one in the middle latitude of China in WRF simulation, which can be traced back to model bias in atmospheric circulation and water vapor transportation in these regions. Several extreme climate indices are selected to further assess the model’s performance in simulating climate extremes, WRF can well reproduce the main features with better model skill compared with MIROC5. The better performance of WRF indicates the necessity of the dynamical downscaling technique and the robustness of regional climate simulation in future regional climate projection over China.