From winter to summer and back: lessons from the parameterisation of a seasonal food web model for the Bialowieza forest.
From winter to summer and back: lessons from the parameterisation of a seasonal food web model for the Bialowieza forest.
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从冬天到夏天再回来：比亚沃维扎森林季节性食物网模型参数化的经验教训。
DOI：
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
F. Barraquand
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Sauve;F. Barraquand
动态食物网模型描述了物种丰度如何随着时间的推移而变化，作为营养和生活史参数的函数。它们对于预测生态系统对扰动的反应至关重要。然而，众所周知，它们很难参数化，因此大多数模型严重依赖于参数的异速生长标度或生物量流量的逆估计。异速生长方法使具有可比体重的物种具有几乎相同的参数，这些参数可以在营养级内产生排斥。生物量流的方法是更精确的，但限于稳态，这是不适合随时间变化的环境。为温带和北极环境的大型食物网参数化，需要同时处理许多相似大小的物种和强烈的季节性环境。受比亚洛维萨森林脊椎动物食物网丰富经验的启发，我们parameterized一个二分食物网模型，包括21捕食者和124猎物物种。我们的模型是一个非自治耦合常微分方程系统，允许季节性的生活史和捕食参数。出生率和死亡率，每个物种的饮食，食物需求和生物量的信息的季节性描述相结合的动态食物网模型的季节性参数化。食物网的季节性随时间变化的内在增长率和相互作用的参数，而捕食模型与I型和II型功能性反应。尽管存在大量明显的竞争，但我们所有的模型变体都允许> 80%的持久性，并且与观察到的（季节性）生物量定量匹配。我们还确定了最大限度地提高持久性，再现观察到的生物量，并确保模型的鲁棒性采样误差之间的权衡。虽然多年的周期预计与II型功能的反应，他们在这里阻止了强大的捕食者自我调节。我们讨论了这些结果和可能的改进模型。我们提供了一个通用的工作流程参数化动态食物网模型在季节性环境中，基于一个真实的案例研究。这可能有助于更好地预测生物多样性食物网如何应对不断变化的环境。
Dynamic food web models describe how species abundances change over time as a function of trophic and life-history parameters. They are essential to predicting the response of ecosystems to perturbations. However, they are notoriously difficult to parameterise, so that most models rely heavily either on allometric scaling of parameters or inverse estimation of biomass flows. The allometric approach makes species of comparable body mass have near-identical parameters which can generate extinctions within a trophic level. The biomass flow approach is more precise, but is restricted to steady-states, which is not appropriate for time-varying environments. Adequately parameterising large food webs of temperate and arctic environments requires to deal both with many species of similar sizes and a strongly seasonal environment. Inspired by the rich empirical knowledge on the vertebrate food web of the Bialowieza forest, we parameterize a bipartite food web model comprising 21 predators and 124 prey species. Our model is a non-autonomous coupled ODE system that allows for seasonality in life-history and predation parameters. Birth and death rates, seasonal descriptions of diet for each species, food requirements and biomass information are combined into a seasonal parameterisation of a dynamic food web model. Food web seasonality is implemented with time-varying intrinsic growth rate and interaction parameters, while predation is modelled with both type I and type II functional responses. All our model variants allow for >80 % persistence in spite of massive apparent competition, and a quantitative match to observed (seasonal) biomasses. We also identify trade-offs between maximising persistence, reproducing observed biomasses, and ensuring model robustness to sampling errors. Although multi-annual cycles are expected with type II functional responses, they are here prevented by a strong predator self-regulation. We discuss these results and possible improvements of the model. We provide a general workflow to parameterise dynamic food web models in seasonal environments, based on a real case study. This may help to better predict how biodiverse food webs respond to changing environments.
影响因子：
64.8
作者：
Ushio, Masayuki;Hsieh, Chih-hao;Kondoh, Michio
通讯作者：
Kondoh, Michio