Homogeneous Actions and Hetergeneous Beliefs: Experimental Evidence on the Formation of Information Cascades
Homogeneous Actions and Hetergeneous Beliefs: Experimental Evidence on the Formation of Information Cascades
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同质行为和异质信念：信息级联形成的实验证据
DOI：
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发表时间：
2004
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
J. Dominitz
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Angela A. Hung;J. Dominitz
关于信息级联形成的理论已经在实验环境中进行了测试，在实验环境中，玩家根据私人信号和之前的公开声明公开宣布对二元事件的二元预期。我们复制和补充的实验数据收集，私下引发的信号和事件的信念。因此，我们能够直接观察玩家如何根据其他人的公告更新期望并形成推论。过去的研究主要集中在叶栅理论的一个含义上--叶栅的实现。然而，该模型的预测比简单地预测一旦级联开始，玩家将效仿其他玩家更强大。事实上，新的公共公告被预测对其他人的主观期望没有影响，因为这些公告不包含关于私人信号的信息。我们在我们的数据中看到，级联行为出现的频率与以前的级联实验中没有信念诱导。然而，我们发现证据的系统异质性的信念更新规则跨学科。因此，贝叶斯决策者可以从级联期间做出的公共公告中提取关于私有信号的信息。事实上，报告的主观概率是在级联开始后根据公告进行修改的。
Theories on the formation of information cascades have been tested in experimental settings in which players publicly announce binary expectations of a binary event based on private signals and preceding public announcements. We replicate and supplement the experimental data collection by privately eliciting beliefs on the signals and the event. Therefore, we are able to directly observe how players update expectations and form inferences based on the announcements of others. Past studies have focused on one implication of cascade theory--the realization of cascades. Yet the prediction of the model is stronger than simply that players will follow the example of others once a cascade has begun. In fact, new public announcements are predicted to have no effect on the subjective expectations of others, because these announcements contain no information about private signals. We see in our data that cascade behavior arises as frequently as in previous cascade experiments without belief elicitation. Yet, we find evidence of systematic heterogeneity in belief-updating rules across subjects. As a result, a Bayesian decision maker may extract information about private signals from public announcements made during a cascade. In fact, reported subjective probabilities are revised in response to announcements after a cascade has begun.