Using Mean Flow Change as a Proxy to Infer Interdecadal Storm Track Variability.
Using Mean Flow Change as a Proxy to Infer Interdecadal Storm Track Variability.
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DOI：
10.1175/2773.1
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发表时间：
2003-07
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
E. Chang;Yunfei Fu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
E. Chang;Yunfei Fu
最近几项主要基于再分析资料的研究表明，北半球风暴路径在20世纪下半叶有所加强。然而，与陆地地区的探空仪观测进行比较表明，涡旋方差/协方差统计数据可能包含虚假跳跃，这导致了风暴路径长期趋势的夸大。在这项研究中，风暴路径变化是由平均流量异常用典型相关分析(CCA)来推断的。利用最近更可靠的资料，推导出了一个将风暴路径异常与平均流量异常联系起来的CCA模型。然后，当风暴路径分析被认为更可疑(甚至不存在)时，该模型被应用于使用早期平均流量异常来推断风暴路径异常。CCA分析的结果表明，在大西洋盆地和欧洲观察到的强烈长期趋势与平均流量异常是一致的，而根据平均流量变化进行的CCA预测建议。
Abstract Several recent studies, based mainly on analyses of reanalysis data, have suggested that the Northern Hemisphere storm tracks have intensified during the second half of the twentieth century. However, comparisons with rawinsonde observations over land areas suggest that eddy variance/covariance statistics may contain spurious jumps that had led to an exaggeration of the storm track secular trend. In this study, storm track variations are inferred from mean flow anomalies using canonical correlation analysis (CCA). A CCA model relating storm track anomalies to mean flow anomalies is derived using recent, more reliable data. The model is then applied to infer storm track anamalies using mean flow anomalies for earlier periods, when storm track analyses are deemed more suspect (or even nonexistent). Results of the CCA analyses suggest that the strong secular trend observed over the Atlantic basin and Europe is consistent with mean flow anomalies, while CCA predictions based on mean flow changes sugg...