Risk prediction and aversion by anterior cingulate cortex
Risk prediction and aversion by anterior cingulate cortex
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DOI：
10.3758/cabn.7.4.266
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发表时间：
2007-12-01
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Braver, Todd S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brown, Joshua W.;Braver, Todd S.
最近提出的错误可能性假说认为，前扣带皮层（ACC）及其周围区域的活跃程度与感知到的错误可能性成正比。这个假设最初是由一个计算模型预测得出的。同样的计算模型现在进一步预测，ACC不仅对预测的错误可能性敏感，而且对错误发生时预测的后果程度敏感。误差可能性和预测误差后果大小的乘积共同定义了给定行为的一般“预期风险”，其方式与主观预期效用理论类似，但与之正交。来自激励变化信号任务的新fMRI结果现在复制了错误-可能性效应，验证了计算模型的进一步预测，并说明了为什么某些人群可能无法显示出努力-可能性效应。特别是，错误可能性效应和预期风险效应一般表明对错误的早期预测因素更敏感，并且在风险厌恶而非风险容忍的个体中可见。综上所述，结果与ACC的预期风险模型一致，并表明ACC可能通过招募大脑活动来避免风险，从而通常有助于认知控制。
The recently proposed error-likelihood hypothesis suggests that anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) and surrounding areas will become active in proportion to the perceived likelihood of an error. The hypothesis was originally derived from a computational model prediction. The same computational model now makes a further prediction that ACC will be sensitive not only to predicted error likelihood, but also to the predicted magnitude of the consequences, should an error occur. The product of error likelihood and predicted error consequence magnitude collectively defines the general "expected risk" of a given behavior in a manner analogous but orthogonal to subjective expected utility theory. New fMRI results from an incentive change signal task now replicate the error-likelihood effect, validate the further predictions of the computational model, and suggest why some segments of the population may fail to show an effor-likelihood effect. In particular, error-likelihood effects and expected risk effects in general indicate greater sensitivity to earlier predictors of errors and are seen in risk-averse but not risk-tolerant individuals. Taken together, the results are consistent with an expected risk model of ACC and suggest that ACC may generally contribute to cognitive control by recruiting brain activity to avoid risk.