Projection of anthropogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emissions in China for the period 2010–2020
Projection of anthropogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emissions in China for the period 2010–2020
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DOI：
10.1016/j.atmosenv.2011.01.013
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发表时间：
2011-12
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Wei Wei-Wei;Shuxiao Wang;J. Hao;Shuiyuan Cheng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Wei Wei-Wei;Shuxiao Wang;J. Hao;Shuiyuan Cheng
以2005年为参考年，对中国未来（2010-2020年）人为挥发性有机化合物（VOCs）排放进行了预测。这些预测是基于人口增长率较低（低于1%）、经济持续发展、GDP高速增长和城市化程度提高的假设。结果表明，即使未来中国VOCs排放立法标准得到有效实施（假设控制情景一），全国VOCs排放量也将从2005年的19.4 Tg持续增加到2020年的25.9 Tg。2010-2020年各排放源的贡献差异较大。溶剂利用将成为最大的贡献者，从22%上升到37%，工业过程也将从17%增加到24%。然而，由于中国严格的VOCs排放限制标准，道路车辆的排放量将从25%迅速下降到11%，同时由于国内生物燃料消耗的减少，固定燃料燃烧的比例将从23%下降到16%。此外，各省之间的排放也存在显著差异。东部和沿海发达地区的挥发性有机化合物排放量高于西部和内陆欠发达地区。此外，这种分歧在未来还会扩大。当我们假设在此期间对溶剂利用和工业过程采取更严格的控制措施（控制情景II）时，预测显示，如果在最重要的工业污染源的新建工厂（2005年以后）安装废气后处理系统，并且涂料、粘合剂和油墨中“低/零VOCs”产品的市场份额提高到发达国家目前的水平，国家每年VOCs排放量将保持在20 Tg左右。估计这两种措施的减排量是相似的。虽然情景二表明挥发性有机化合物排放的部门和省差异仍然存在，但它们比情景一要小。
The future (2010–2020) anthropogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emissions in China were projected in this study using 2005 as the reference year. The projections are based on the assumptions of a lower population growth rate (less than 1%), continuous economic development with high GDP growth, and increased urbanization. The results show that the national VOCs emissions would continuously increase from 19.4 Tg in 2005 to 25.9 Tg in 2020, even if China's legislative standards for VOCs emissions are implemented effectively in the future (assumed as control scenario I). The contributions of various emission sources were found to differ greatly in the period of 2010–2020. Solvent utilization would become the largest contributor rising from 22% to 37%, along with an increase for industrial processes from 17% to 24%. However, road vehicle emissions would rapidly decrease from 25% to 11% due to the strict VOCs emission limit standards in China, along with the decrease for stationary fuel combustion from 23% to 16% caused by the reduction of domestic biofuel consumption. Additionally, there would be a notable divergence among provincial emissions. The developed eastern and coastal regions would emit more VOCs than the relatively underdeveloped western and inland regions. Moreover, this divergence grows in the future. When we assumed stricter control measures for solvent utilization and industrial processes (control scenario II) for that period, the projections revealed national VOCs emissions per year would remain at about 20 Tg, if exhaust after-treatment systems are installed in newly-built factories (after 2005) for the most important industrial sources, and the market shares of “low/zero-VOCs” products in paints, adhesives and printing ink raise to the present levels of developed countries. The emission abatements of the two types of measures were estimated to be similar. While scenario II indicates that the sectoral and provincial differences of VOCs emissions would still exist, they would be smaller than in scenario I.