Lifetime risk for diabetes mellitus in the United States
Lifetime risk for diabetes mellitus in the United States
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DOI：
10.1001/jama.290.14.1884
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发表时间：
2003-10-08
影响因子：
120.7
通讯作者：
Williamson, DF
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Narayan, KMV;Boyle, JP;Williamson, DF
背景
尽管糖尿病是美国最普遍且花费高昂的慢性疾病之一，但尚未有关于个体患糖尿病平均终生风险的估计值发表。
目的
估计美国2000年出生队列中按年龄、性别和种族/族裔划分的糖尿病终生风险。
设计、地点和参与者
利用国家健康访谈调查（1984 - 2000年）的数据来估计2000年按年龄、性别和种族/族裔划分的患病率和发病率。使用美国人口普查局的数据以及先前一项关于糖尿病作为死亡原因的研究数据来估计糖尿病患者和非糖尿病患者按年龄、性别和种族/族裔划分的死亡率。
主要观察指标
糖尿病的剩余（残余）终生风险（从出生到80岁，以1年为间隔）、患糖尿病的持续时间以及因糖尿病损失的生命年和质量调整生命年。
结果
据估计，2000年出生的个体患糖尿病的终生风险男性为32.8%，女性为38.5%。在所有年龄阶段，女性的剩余终生风险都更高。糖尿病终生风险估计值最高的是西班牙裔（男性为45.4%，女性为51.5%）。被诊断患有糖尿病的个体预期寿命大幅降低。例如，我们估计如果一个人在40岁时被诊断出患有糖尿病，男性将损失11.6个生命年和18.6个质量调整生命年，女性将损失14.3个生命年和22.0个质量调整生命年。
结论
对于2000年在美国出生的个体，被诊断患有糖尿病的终生概率相当高。糖尿病及其并发症的一级预防是重要的公共卫生重点。
Context Although diabetes mellitus is one of the most prevalent and costly chronic diseases in the United States, no estimates have been published of individuals' average lifetime risk of developing diabetes.Objective Toe stimate age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific lifetime risk. of diabetes in the cohort born in 2000 in the United States.Design, Setting, and Participants Data from the National Health Interview Survey (1984-2000) were used to estimate age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific prevalence and incidence in 2000. US Census Bureau data. and data from a previous study of diabetes as a cause of death were used to estimate age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity- specific mortality rates for diabetic and nondiabetic populations.Main Outcome Measures, Residual (remaining) lifetime risk of diabetes (from birth to 80, years in 1-year intervals), duration with diabetes, and life-years and quality-adjusted life-years lost from diabetes.Results the estimated lifetime risk of developing diabetes for individuals born in 2000 is 32.8% for males and 38.5% for females. Females have higher residual lifetime risks at all ages. The highest. estimated lifetime risk for diabetes is among Hispanics (males, 45.4% and females, 515%) Individuals diagnosed as having diabetes have large reductions in life expectancy. For example, we estimate that if an individual is diagnosed at age 40 years, men will lose 11.6 life-years and 18.6 quality-adjusted life-years and women will lose 14.3 life-years and 22.0 quality-adjusted life-years.Conclusions, For individuals born in the United States in 2000, the lifetime probability of being diagnosed with diabetes mellitus is substantial. Primary prevention of diabetes and its complications are important public health priorities.