Increasing risks of multiple breadbasket failure under 1.5 and 2 °C global warming
Increasing risks of multiple breadbasket failure under 1.5 and 2 °C global warming
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DOI：
10.1016/j.agsy.2019.05.010
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发表时间：
2019-10-01
影响因子：
6.6
通讯作者：
Dadson, Simon
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Gaupp, Franziska;Hall, Jim;Dadson, Simon
由于全球平均气温上升和极端气候事件更加频繁，日益相互关联的全球粮食系统变得更容易受到生产冲击。然而，人们对极端天气事件导致多个粮仓失败的实际风险知之甚少。受《巴黎气候协定》的推动，本文量化了全球变暖 1.5 和 2 摄氏度对全球农业的空间风险。本文重点关注全球五个主要粮食产区的三种主要作物——小麦、大豆和玉米——所面临的气候风险。来自仅大气的 HadAM3P 模型的气候数据是“半度额外变暖、预测和预计影响”(HAPPI) 实验的一部分，用于分析气候极端事件的风险。使用联结方法，研究了多个粮仓同时农作物歉收的风险。预计损失不会随着全球变暖全球平均温度 (GMT) 升高 1.5 至 2 摄氏度而呈线性变化。一般来说，虽然 1.5 摄氏度与 2 摄氏度的产量差异很大，但它们并不像 1.5 摄氏度与历史基线（相当于比工业化前 GMT 高出 0.85 摄氏度）之间的差异那么大。然而，同时作物歉收的风险确实在 1.5 至 2 摄氏度之间不成比例地增加，因此超过 1.5 摄氏度阈值将对全球粮食安全构成威胁。对于玉米来说，多个粮仓失败的风险增加最多，变暖 2 摄氏度时，从 6% 增加到 40%，增加 1.5% 到 54%。相对而言，两种变暖情景之间同时出现的气候风险增幅最高的是小麦（40%），其次是玉米（35%）和大豆（23%）。看看对农业生产的影响，我们发现，将全球变暖限制在 1.5 摄氏度可以避免全球粮仓中高达 27.53 亿（161,000、265,000）吨玉米（小麦、大豆）的产量损失，并将同时作物歉收的风险分别降低 26%、28% 和 19%。
The increasingly inter-connected global food system is becoming more vulnerable to production shocks owing to increasing global mean temperatures and more frequent climate extremes. Little is known, however, about the actual risks of multiple breadbasket failure due to extreme weather events. Motivated by the Paris Climate Agreement, this paper quantifies spatial risks to global agriculture in 1.5 and 2 degrees C warmer worlds. This paper focuses on climate risks posed to three major crops - wheat, soybean and maize - in five major global food producing areas. Climate data from the atmosphere-only HadAM3P model as part of the "Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts" (HAPPI) experiment are used to analyse the risks of climatic extreme events. Using the copula methodology, the risks of simultaneous crop failure in multiple breadbaskets are investigated. Projected losses do not scale linearly with global warming increases between 1.5 and 2 degrees C Global Mean Temperature (GMT). In general, whilst the differences in yield at 1.5 versus 2 degrees C are significant they are not as large as the difference between 1.5 degrees C and the historical baseline which corresponds to 0.85 degrees C above pre-industrial GMT. Risks of simultaneous crop failure, however, do increase disproportionately between 1.5 and 2 degrees C, so surpassing the 1.5 degrees C threshold will represent a threat to global food security. For maize, risks of multiple breadbasket failures increase the most, from 6% to 40% at 1.5 to 54% at 2 degrees C warming. In relative terms, the highest simultaneous climate risk increase between the two warming scenarios was found for wheat (40%), followed by maize (35%) and soybean (23%). Looking at the impacts on agricultural production, we show that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C would avoid production losses of up to 2753 million (161,000, 265,000) tonnes maize (wheat, soybean) in the global breadbaskets and would reduce the risk of simultaneous crop failure by 26%, 28% and 19% respectively.