Variability and future decreases in winter wave heights in the Western North Pacific
Variability and future decreases in winter wave heights in the Western North Pacific
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DOI：
10.1002/2016gl067924
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发表时间：
2016-03
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
T. Shimura;N. Mori;M. Hemer
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
T. Shimura;N. Mori;M. Hemer
海洋表面波气候是离岸和海岸的许多工业和环境系统的关键考虑因素。一个动力学谱波模式与全球气候模式（GCMs）被迫用于产生一个集合的模拟历史和预测未来的波气候。为了估计预计的波浪气候的不确定性，我们将使用MRI-AGCM 3. 2 H的多成员集合实验与使用8个CMIP 5 GCM的多模式集合相结合。分析了世纪末至21世纪末冬季波高的未来变化。预计在西北太平洋波高的减少是高度一致的合奏。未来波高的降低与西太平洋形势的变化密切相关。本地生成的波浪和远程生成的涌浪都是重要的，以估计未来的变化，在区域尺度上的波浪气候。
Ocean surface wave climate is a key consideration for a number of industrial and environmental systems, both offshore and at the coast. A dynamical spectral wave model forced with global climate models (GCMs) was used to produce an ensemble of simulations of both historical and projected future wave climate. To estimate the uncertainty of the projected wave climate, we combined a multimember ensemble experiment using MRI‐AGCM3.2H with a multimodel ensemble using eight CMIP5 GCMs. Future changes in wintertime wave heights from the end of the 20th to the 21st century were analyzed. Projected decreases in wave heights over the Western North Pacific are highly consistent among the ensemble. The future decreases in wave heights are significantly related to changes in the West Pacific pattern. Both locally generated waves and remotely generated swells are important to estimate future changes in the wave climate on a regional scale.