Spatial gradients in country-level population trends of European birds
Spatial gradients in country-level population trends of European birds
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DOI：
10.1111/ddi.12945
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发表时间：
2019-07-22
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Reif, Jiri
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hanzelka, Jan;Horka, Petra;Reif, Jiri
目的种群动态反映了环境驱动因素对物种种群动态的影响。由于这种影响的强度可能会在空间上发生可预测的变化，我们测试了关于环境驱动因素对整个大陆鸟类种群趋势影响的空间梯度的多种假设。位置欧洲。方法我们使用了32个欧洲国家249种鸟类的国家级种群趋势。对于每个物种，我们表达了12个特征的值，这些特征反映了主要环境驱动因素的影响：气候变化，土地利用变化和环境立法的变化。我们使用广义加性混合模型将这些特征与人口趋势联系起来，并通过包括国家地理位置与其中四个特征的相互作用来测试空间梯度的存在，我们假设了这些特征与趋势关系的空间模式。结果在欧盟鸟类指令附件I中列出的时间最长的物种向西北方向的趋势越来越积极，但在较短的物种中发现了相反的模式。冷适应物种有越来越多的负面趋势，向北，特别是西北部，而暖适应物种的趋势一般是积极的，并在北方的方向增加。栖息地生态位位置的空间梯度趋势较弱，森林物种在东北欧呈正趋势，而开放栖息地物种在欧洲大陆最西边缘呈负趋势。主要结论所有主要假设驱动因素的影响在整个欧洲各不相同。在西北欧，气候变化对北极和高地鸟类的影响可能最为不利，而适应温暖的物种可能同时受益于这些变化。各国在执行环境立法方面的差异可能是附件一所列物种空间格局的驱动因素，而土地利用强度的统一可能是生境生态位效应相对较弱格局的原因。
Aim Population trends reflect influence of environmental drivers acting upon species' population dynamics. As the strength of this influence may change predictably in space, we test multiple hypotheses about spatial gradients in the effects of environmental drivers on bird population trends across the continent. Location Europe. Methods We used country-level population trends for 249 bird species in 32 European countries. For each species, we expressed values of 12 traits which mirror the influence of major environmental drivers: climate change, land-use change and change in environmental legislation. We related these traits to population trends using generalized additive mixed models and tested for the presence of spatial gradients by including the interaction of countries' geographic position with four of these traits for which we hypothesized spatial patterns in relationships to trends. Results Species listed for the longest time under Annex I of the EU's Birds Directive had increasingly positive trends towards the north-west, but an indication of the opposite pattern was found for shorter-listed species. Cold-adapted species had increasingly negative trends towards the North and especially the north-west, whereas the trends of the warm-adapted species were generally positive and increased in northern direction. Spatial gradients in trends were weaker for the habitat niche position with forest species having positive trends in North-Eastern Europe and open-habitat species having negative trends in the Westernmost edge of the continent. Main conclusions The influence of all major hypothesized drivers varies across Europe. Climate change impacts are probably most detrimental in North-Western Europe for the Arctic and upland birds, whereas the warm-adapted species may benefit from these changes at the same time. The differences in the enforcement of environmental legislation among countries are a likely driver of the spatial patterns for the Annex I species, whereas the unification of land-use intensity may be the cause of relatively weak patterns in the habitat niche effects.