Birth cohort effects in incident renal replacement therapy in Japan, 1982?2021
Birth cohort effects in incident renal replacement therapy in Japan, 1982?2021
复制标题
1982 年至 2021 年日本肾脏替代治疗中出生队列的影响
DOI：
10.1007/s10157-023-02345-x
复制
发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
2.3
通讯作者：
Narita Ichiei
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wakasugi Minako;Narita Ichiei
背景本研究旨在调查日本需要肾脏替代治疗（RRT）的终末期肾病（ESKD）的长期趋势，使用年龄段-队列分析和评估出生队列对需要RRT的ESKD事件的影响。方法从日本透析治疗学会注册处提取1982年至2021年按性别划分的20至84岁的RRT患者人数数据RRT的年发病率计算使用人口普查人口作为替代者，并使用年龄-时期-队列模型评价发病率的变化。年龄和调查年份类别产生了20个间隔为5年的出生队列结果男性和女性RRT的发病率在20世纪初出生的出生队列中最初上升，然后在1940- 60年代男性和1930- 40年代女性中减速并达到峰值，这是在男女都在稳步下降之后。与参考的1947-1951年出生队列相比，最高队列率比为1.14（95% CI，1.04-1.25），1967-1971年出生队列中男性为1.04（95%CI，0.98-1.10）在1937-1941年出生队列的妇女。但RRT的峰值在不同性别间存在差异。我们的研究结果表明，1940 - 1960年代出生的男性和1930 - 40年代出生的女性可能是降低日本普通人群RRT发生率时需要考虑的重要目标人群。
BackgroundThis study aimed to investigate the long-term trends of incident end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) requiring renal replacement therapy (RRT) in Japan using age-period-cohort analysis and evaluated birth cohort effects for incident ESKD requiring RRT.MethodsThe number of incident RRT patients aged between 20 and 84 years by sex from 1982 to 2021 was extracted from the Japanese Society of Dialysis Therapy registry data. Annual incidence rates of RRT were calculated using census population as denominators, and changes in the incidence rates were evaluated using an age-period-cohort model. The age and survey year period categories generated 20 birth cohorts with 5-year intervals (from 1902–1907 to 1997–2001).ResultsThe incidence rates of RRT in both sexes initially rose in the birth cohorts born in the early 1900s, and then decelerated and peaked during 1940–1960s in men and 1930–1940s in women, following a steady decline in both sexes. Compared with the reference 1947–1951 birth cohort, the highest cohort rate ratio was 1.14 (95% CI, 1.04–1.25) in the 1967–1971 birth cohort in men and 1.04 (95% CI, 0.98–1.10) in the 1937–1941 birth cohort in women.ConclusionsSignificant cohort effects were identified in both sexes, but the peak of RRT was different for each sex. Our findings suggest that men born between 1940 and 1960s and women born between 1930 and 40 s may be important target populations to consider when decreasing incidence rates of RRT among the general Japanese population.