The influence of local spring temperature variance on temperature sensitivity of spring phenology
The influence of local spring temperature variance on temperature sensitivity of spring phenology
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DOI：
10.1111/gcb.12509
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发表时间：
2014-05
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Tao Wang;C. Ottlé;S. Peng;I. Janssens;Xin Lin;B. Poulter;C. Yue;P. Ciais
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Tao Wang;C. Ottlé;S. Peng;I. Janssens;Xin Lin;B. Poulter;C. Yue;P. Ciais
气候变暖对植物春季物候的影响是近十年来研究的热点，植物的物候对温度的敏感性存在很大的差异。然而，很少有研究明确地将物候敏感性与当地气候变化联系起来。在这里，我们开始测试的假设，物候敏感性的强度下降，增加当地春季温度的变化，通过综合地面观测结果。我们收集了地面长期（20-50年）春季物候数据库（PEP 725数据库）和相应的气候数据集。我们发现，从地面观测的物种水平上，随着当地春季温度变化的增加，物候敏感性的强度普遍下降。这表明，植物可能不太可能在当地春季温度差异较大的地方跟踪气候变暖。这可能与霜冻风险在较大的当地春季温度变化中可能更高的可能性有关，并且植物通过更多地依赖其他线索（例如，高的寒冷要求，光周期），从而抑制了春季气候变暖的物候反应。这项研究表明，当地春季温度变化是一个未充分研究的物候敏感性的研究来源，并强调了将这一因素，以提高植物对人为气候变化的可预测性在未来的研究。
The impact of climate warming on the advancement of plant spring phenology has been heavily investigated over the last decade and there exists great variability among plants in their phenological sensitivity to temperature. However, few studies have explicitly linked phenological sensitivity to local climate variance. Here, we set out to test the hypothesis that the strength of phenological sensitivity declines with increased local spring temperature variance, by synthesizing results across ground observations. We assemble ground‐based long‐term (20–50 years) spring phenology database (PEP725 database) and the corresponding climate dataset. We find a prevalent decline in the strength of phenological sensitivity with increasing local spring temperature variance at the species level from ground observations. It suggests that plants might be less likely to track climatic warming at locations with larger local spring temperature variance. This might be related to the possibility that the frost risk could be higher in a larger local spring temperature variance and plants adapt to avoid this risk by relying more on other cues (e.g., high chill requirements, photoperiod) for spring phenology, thus suppressing phenological responses to spring warming. This study illuminates that local spring temperature variance is an understudied source in the study of phenological sensitivity and highlight the necessity of incorporating this factor to improve the predictability of plant responses to anthropogenic climate change in future studies.