Low-carbon energy policy and ambient air pollution in Shanghai, China: a health-based economic assessment.
Low-carbon energy policy and ambient air pollution in Shanghai, China: a health-based economic assessment.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2006.11.030
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发表时间：
2007-02
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Chang-hong Chen;Bing-heng Chen;Bingyan Wang;Cheng Huang;J. Zhao;Yixiu Dai;H. Kan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Chang-hong Chen;Bing-heng Chen;Bingyan Wang;Cheng Huang;J. Zhao;Yixiu Dai;H. Kan
能源和相关的健康问题是当今世界日益关注的问题。为探讨上海市不同低碳能源情景下环境空气污染的潜在公共健康和经济影响，估算了不同规划情景下上海市居民的空气污染暴露水平，并利用现有流行病学研究得出的浓度-响应函数评估了环境空气污染对公共健康的影响。然后，我们根据每个健康结果的单位值估计了健康影响的相应经济价值。研究结果表明，与低碳能源情景相关的环境空气污染可能会对上海居民未来的健康状况产生重大影响，无论是在物质方面还是在货币方面。与基础情景相比，实施各种低碳能源情景可以在2010年和2020年分别预防2804-8249和9870- 23100例与PM10相关的可避免死亡（中值）。它还可以降低几种相关疾病的发病率。相应的经济效益在2010年和2020年可分别达到507.31-1492.33万美元和2642.45-6192.11万美元（中值）。这些研究结果说明，低碳能源政策不仅可以减少温室气体的排放，还可以在减少空气污染物排放、改善空气质量和促进公众健康方面发挥积极作用。我们的估计可以为当地决策者提供有用的信息，以进行进一步的成本效益分析。
Energy and related health issues are of growing concern worldwide today. To investigate the potential public health and economic impact of ambient air pollution under various low-carbon energy scenarios in Shanghai, we estimated the exposure level of Shanghai residents to air pollution under various planned scenarios, and assessed the public health impact using concentration-response functions derived from available epidemiologic studies. We then estimated the corresponding economic values of the health effects based on unit values for each health outcome. Our results show that ambient air pollution in relation to low-carbon energy scenarios could have a significant impact on the future health status of Shanghai residents, both in physical and monetary terms. Compared with the base case scenario, implementation of various low-carbon energy scenarios could prevent 2804–8249 and 9870–23,100 PM10-related avoidable deaths (mid-value) in 2010 and 2020, respectively. It could also decrease incidence of several relevant diseases. The corresponding economic benefits could reach 507.31–1492.33 and 2642.45–6192.11 million U.S. dollars (mid-value) in 2010 and 2020, respectively. These findings illustrate that a low-carbon energy policy will not only decrease the emission of greenhouse gases, but also play an active role in the reduction of air pollutant emissions, improvement of air quality, and promotion of public health. Our estimates can provide useful information to local decision-makers for further cost-benefit analysis.