Updating historical tree-ring records for climate reconstruction
Updating historical tree-ring records for climate reconstruction
复制标题
更新历史树木年轮记录以进行气候重建
DOI：
10.1016/j.quascirev.2010.05.018
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发表时间：
2010
影响因子：
4
通讯作者：
U. Büntgen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Willy Tegel;Jan Vanmoerkerke;U. Büntgen
在过去的三十年里，许多晚全新世长的树木年轮（TR）年表已经为欧洲的不同地区，使考古，历史和文化的木材仍然是每年的精度。具有讽刺意味的是，这些复合材料中固有的古气候证据是有限的，因为现代更新对仪器测量的校准/验证至关重要，通常是不适当的，不完整的，甚至是缺失的。在这里，我们提出了一种新的方法来更新历史TR记录，同时防止与目标数据的统计过拟合，并主张在标准化（去趋势）之前在历史（早期）和最近（现代）TR样本之间进行“水平”分割。这种分离技术将有助于克服大气温室气体增加、生物圈施肥、森林管理、样本复制、年龄结构和与现代代用资料更新有关的年表发展等前所未有的影响。
Over the past three decades, numerous Late Holocene-long tree-ring (TR) chronologies have been developed for different parts of Europe that allow archaeological, historical and cultural wood remains to be dated with annual precision. Ironically, palaeoclimatic evidence inherent in such composites is limited as modern updates essential for calibration/verification with instrumental measurements are often inappropriate, incomplete or even missing. Here we proposes a novel approach to updating historical TR records while preventing statistical over-fit with the target data and advocate ‘horizontal’ splitting between historical (early) and recent (modern) TR samples prior to their standardization (detrending). This split-technique will help to overcoming unprecedented effects of increased atmospheric greenhouse-gas, biospheric fertilization, forest management, sample replication, age-structure and chronology development associated with modern proxy updates.