Association of Kawasaki disease with tropospheric winds in Central Chile: Is wind-borne desert dust a risk factor?
Association of Kawasaki disease with tropospheric winds in Central Chile: Is wind-borne desert dust a risk factor?
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DOI：
10.1016/j.envint.2015.02.007
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发表时间：
2015-05-01
影响因子：
11.8
通讯作者：
Garcia, Alvaro
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jorquera, Hector;Borzutzky, Arturo;Garcia, Alvaro
研究发现，在日本、夏威夷和美国圣地亚哥诊断出的川崎病（KD）病例随着来自中亚的对流层风模式的到来而增加，这表明存在一种常见的风媒致病因子。我们分析了智利圣地亚哥住院的MD病例，以寻找与当地、区域和大尺度气象变量的关联。收集了2001-2010年MD发病率、局地气象变量、大尺度风型和厄尔尼诺南方涛动（ENSO）指数的月度数据；我们在所有分析中考虑标准化异常，并使用线性时间序列模型来解释数据自相关。我们发现气象变量解释了38%的MD率差异。滞后3个月的北风单位增加、滞后1个月和滞后3个月的气温以及ENSO 4指数的逐月变化分别与MD率的变化相关，分别为0.203 （95% CI 0.049 ~ 0358）、0.181 （95% CI 0.014 ~ 0347）、0.192 （95% CI 0.030 ~ 0353）和0307 （95% CI - 0.458 ~ 0.156）。当北风水平发生变化或使用较短时期（2005-2010年）估计模式参数时，这些结果是稳健的。我们在智利圣地亚哥发现了MD与对流层北风模式的统计关联，这表明从阿塔卡马沙漠运输的尘埃可能包含病原体。一个新的结果是，当拉尼娜消散或厄尔尼诺上升时，ENSO动力学也解释了海温变化的部分原因。因此，在未来的全球研究中，气候尺度动力学至少可以作为一个潜在的解释变量来考虑，它可能会混淆全球尺度上的MD季节性。(C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd.版权所有。
It has been found that Kawasaki disease (KD) cases diagnosed in Japan, Hawaii and San Diego, USA increase when tropospheric wind patterns arrive from central Asia, suggesting a common, wind-borne causal agent. We analyzed MD cases hospitalized in Santiago, Chile to look for associations with local, regional and large scale meteorological variables. We compiled monthly data of MD incidence rates, local meteorological variables, large scale wind patterns and several El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices for 2001-2010; we considered standardized anomalies in all analyses and used linear time series models to account for data autocorrelation. We found that meteorological variables explain 38% of variance in MD rates. A unit increase in northerly wind at 3 lagged months, temperature at 1 and 3 lagged months and monthly change of ENSO 4 index are associated with changes in MD rates of 0.203 (95% CI 0.049-0358), 0.181 (95% CI 0.014-0347), 0.192 (95% CI 0.030-0353) and 0307 (95% CI - 0.458-0.156), respectively. These results are robust when northerly wind level is changed or when a shorter period (2005-2010) is used to estimate model parameters. We found a statistical association of MD at Santiago, Chile with tropospheric, northerly wind patterns suggesting that dust transported from the Atacama Desert could include a causative agent. A novel result is that ENSO dynamics also explain part of MD variability with a decrease in MD when La Nina is dissipating or El Nino is on the rise; hence climate scale dynamics might be taken into account in future studies worldwide at least as a potential explanatory variable that may confound MD seasonality on a global scale. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.