Real-Time Climate Prediction Experiment for the Typhoon Frequency in the Western North Pacific for 2006
Real-Time Climate Prediction Experiment for the Typhoon Frequency in the Western North Pacific for 2006
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发表时间：
2006
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通讯作者：
W. Hui;L. Xian;Fan Ke;Sun Jian;Zhou Guang
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作者：
W. Hui;L. Xian;Fan Ke;Sun Jian;Zhou Guang
本文报道了2006年西北太平洋台风频率预报的第一次实时气候数值试验。预报结果表明：6 - 10月西西北地区对流活动减弱，垂直纬向风切变强度增大，存在异常的高层辐合和低层辐散；预报的WNP海温异常非常小。因此，与正常年份相比，WNP的台风成因可能较少。但由于该地区台风发生发展的复杂性，预测存在一定的不确定性。
This paper reports the first real-time climate numerical experiment aiming at the prediction of the typhoon frequency in the western North Pacific(WNP) for the current year 2006.The prediction results show that the convective activities are reduced,the magnitude of the vertical zonal wind shear is increased,and there are anomalous high-level convergence and low-level divergence during the June-October in the WNP.The predicted sea surface temperature anomalies in WNP are very small.Therefore,the results suggest that there maybe less typhoon genesis in WNP compared to the normal years.However,there are uncertainties in the prediction because of the complexity in the typhoon genesis and development in the region.