Taking uncertainty seriously: Classical realism and national security
Taking uncertainty seriously: Classical realism and national security
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认真对待不确定性：古典现实主义与国家安全
DOI：
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发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
P. Porter
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
P. Porter
如果我们不能可靠地预测未来，我们如何明智地为它做准备？通过研究英国2010年的《战略防御与安全评估》，我证明了尽管规划者经常正确地援引不确定性，但他们也暗示了对西方力量和远见的高度确定的意识形态。现代“国家安全国家”将世界描述为危险的不确定性，但却对自己预测和预防威胁的能力抱有错误的信心。我认为古典现实主义，尤其是克劳塞维茨和摩根索的现实主义，是更反射性地处理不确定性的宝贵资源。古典现实主义建议，政府不应仅仅试图提高预见力。他们应该努力检查自己假设的不可靠性，更保守地运用自己的权力，通过发展对未知事物做出反应的智力能力来确保预测失败的可能性，并避免对自己将秩序带入混乱的能力产生错误的信心。
Abstract If we can’t reliably predict the future, how can we be wise when preparing for it? Examining the UK’s ‘Strategic Defence and Security Review’ of 2010, I demonstrate that though planners often rightly invoke uncertainty, they also imply a highly certain ideology about Western power and foresight. Modern ‘national security states’ describe the world as dangerously uncertain, yet fall prey to a misplaced confidence in their ability to anticipate and prevent threats. I argue that classical realism, especially that of Clausewitz and Morgenthau, is a valuable resource for handling uncertainty more reflexively. Classical realism counsels that governments should go beyond attempts to improve foresight. They should try to check against the fallibility of their assumptions, marshal their power more conservatively, insure against the likelihood of predictive failure by developing the intellectual capability to react to the unknown, and avoid misplaced confidence in their ability to bring order into chaos.
战略：历史
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2013
期刊：
--
影响因子：
--
作者：
Freedman
通讯作者：
Freedman