Potentials of Autonomous Vehicles in a Changing Private Transportation System – a Case Study in the Stuttgart Region
Potentials of Autonomous Vehicles in a Changing Private Transportation System – a Case Study in the Stuttgart Region
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自动驾驶汽车在不断变化的私人交通系统中的潜力——以斯图加特地区为例
DOI：
10.1016/j.trpro.2017.07.004
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
P. Vortisch
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Michael Heilig;Tim Hilgert;Nicolai Mallig;Martin Kagerbauer;P. Vortisch
自动驾驶汽车的广泛市场引入将对传统交通系统产生革命性影响。尤其是今天，私人交通系统和公共交通系统之间的清晰界限将变得模糊。由于汽车自动搬迁的可能性，汽车共享将变得更加相关，并与德国受保护的出租车市场展开竞争。拥有私家车甚至可能成为多余的。考虑到这些未来可能的情况，我们在斯图加特地区的一个案例研究中使用了一个微观的出行需求模型来模拟模式选择行为：我们假设一个没有私家车的世界，取而代之的是大型自动按需移动(Amod)服务的存在。随后，在假设最多四人共乘的情况下，我们计算了平稳运行AMOD服务所需的汽车数量。我们发现，并不是所有以前由私家车出行的出行都被自动出行服务所取代；步行、公共交通和骑自行车的出行方式份额也在增加。由于与自驾游相比，AOD服务的成本较低，行程长度也增加了。结果表明，约45%的车辆行驶里程和20%的车辆里程可以节省。此外，结果显示，斯图加特地区约85%的车辆可能是可有可无的。
The extensive market introduction of autonomous vehicles will be revolutionary for traditional transportation systems. Especially today's clear boundaries between private and public transportation systems will blur. Due to the possibility of an autonomous relocation of cars, car-sharing will become more relevant and compete the protected taxicab market in Germany. Private car ownership might even become redundant. Having these possible future circumstances in mind, we use a microscopic travel demand model to simulate the mode choice behaviour in a case study for the Stuttgart region: we presume a world without private cars and the presence of a large autonomous mobility on demand (AMOD) service instead. Following, under the assumption that up to four persons share a ride, we calculated the number of cars needed to run the AMOD service smoothly. We show that not all trips, previously made by private car, are substituted by the AMOD service; the modal share of walking, public transportation and bicycling is increasing as well. Due to lower cost of the AMOD service compared with car trips, trip lengths increase as well. The results show that about 45% of all vehicle movements and 20% of all vehicle kilometres could be saved. Furthermore, the results show that about 85% of all vehicles in the Stuttgart region might be dispensable.