Mind the gaps: a state-space model for analysing the dynamics of North Sea herring spawning components
Mind the gaps: a state-space model for analysing the dynamics of North Sea herring spawning components
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注意差距：用于分析北海鲱鱼产卵成分动态的状态空间模型
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发表时间：
2010
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通讯作者：
M. Payne
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作者：
M. Payne
佩恩，M.R.2010年。注意差距：一个用于分析北海鲱鱼产卵成分动态的状态空间模型。-ICES海洋科学杂志，67：000-000。北海秋季产卵的鲱鱼(Clupea Harengus)种群由一组不同的产卵成分组成。整个种群的动态已经有了很好的特征，但是，尽管有个别组成部分的幼虫丰度指数的时间序列，但在组成部分一级的动态研究历来因缺少观测和高采样噪声而受到阻碍。建立了一个简单的状态空间统计模型，该模型对这些问题是稳健的，对数据有很好的拟合，并被证明能够很好地处理和预测缺失观测。此外，所有组成部分的拟合丰度指数之和被证明是总种群生物量的一个很好的替代指标，尽管该模型利用了单个组成部分的信息。奥克尼-设得兰成分似乎比其他成分从历史损耗事件中恢复得更快，而唐斯成分则是最慢的。这些差异导致了股票构成的变化，显示出在相对较短的时间内，股票构成变化很大。该模型框架为研究和监测北海鲱鱼种群各个组成部分的动态情况提供了宝贵的工具。
Payne, M. R. 2010. Mind the gaps: a state-space model for analysing the dynamics of North Sea herring spawning components. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 67: 000– 000. The North Sea autumn-spawning herring (Clupea harengus) stock consists of a set of different spawning components. The dynamics of the entire stock have been well characterized, but although time-series of larval abundance indices are available for the individual components, study of the dynamics at the component level has historically been hampered by missing observations and high sampling noise. A simple state-space statistical model is developed that is robust to these problems, gives a good fit to the data, and proves capable of both handling and predicting missing observations well. Furthermore, the sum of the fitted abundance indices across all components proves an excellent proxy for the biomass of the total stock, even though the model utilizes information at the individual-component level. The Orkney–Shetland component appears to have recovered faster from historic depletion events than the other components, whereas the Downs component has been the slowest. These differences give rise to changes in stock composition, which are shown to vary widely within a relatively short time. The modelling framework provides a valuable tool for studying and monitoring the dynamics of the individual components of the North Sea herring stock.