Naive Forecast for COVID-19 in Utah Based on the South Korea and Italy Models-the Fluctuation between Two Extremes
Naive Forecast for COVID-19 in Utah Based on the South Korea and Italy Models-the Fluctuation between Two Extremes
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DOI：
10.3390/ijerph17082750
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发表时间：
2020-04-01
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Shoaf, Kimberley
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Qeadan, Fares;Honda, Trenton;Shoaf, Kimberley
司法管辖区的公共卫生行动差异对当地社区在抗击和控制COVID-19大流行方面取得相对成功发挥了重要作用。我们应用韩国和意大利的经验数据预测了美国一个州（犹他州）可能爆发的COVID-19疫情，这两个国家实施了不同的公共卫生行动。预测是通过将犹他州的大流行开始与韩国和意大利的大流行开始对齐来创建的，根据实际的每日传播速度获得短期预测，并通过采用具有四个参数的对数逻辑模型获得长期预测。应用韩国模式，犹他州的疫情峰值为169例/天，5月底疫情解决。应用意大利模型，预计到4月中旬，新增病例将超过200例/天，疫情高峰时每天可能新增250例，疫情将持续到8月底。我们确定了大流行可能持续时间的3个月变化，疫情高峰期每日感染人数的1.5倍差异，以及将两个发达国家处理这种病毒的经验应用于犹他州背景时预期累积病例的3倍差异。
Differences in jurisdictional public health actions have played a significant role in the relative success of local communities in combating and containing the COVID-19 pandemic. We forecast the possible COVID-19 outbreak in one US state (Utah) by applying empirical data from South Korea and Italy, two countries that implemented disparate public health actions. Forecasts were created by aligning the start of the pandemic in Utah with that in South Korea and Italy, getting a short-run forecast based on actual daily rates of spread, and long-run forecast by employing a log-logistic model with four parameters. Applying the South Korea model, the epidemic peak in Utah is 169 cases/day, with epidemic resolution by the end of May. Applying the Italy model, new cases are forecast to exceed 200/day by mid-April, with the potential for 250 new cases a day at the epidemic peak, with the epidemic continuing through the end of August. We identify a 3-month variation in the likely length of the pandemic, a 1.5-fold difference in the number of daily infections at outbreak peak, and a 3-fold difference in the expected cumulative cases when applying the experience of two developed countries in handling this virus to the Utah context.