Decline in human cancer incidence rates at old ages: Age-period-cohort considerations
Decline in human cancer incidence rates at old ages: Age-period-cohort considerations
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DOI：
10.4054/demres.2005.12.11
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发表时间：
2005-05-13
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Yashin, AI
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Arbeev, KG;Ukraintseva, SV;Yashin, AI
对所有地点癌症发病率的年龄轨迹分析(数据来源：国际癌症研究机构)显示，不同国家和时期的老年发病率持平和下降。我们应用了一个非线性的年龄-时期-队列模型(James和Segal 1982)来获得老年癌症发病率的下降。根据癌症发生的多阶段模型，年龄效应由年龄的幂函数表示(Armitage And Doll 1954)。对英格兰和威尔士、日本(宫城县)和美国(纽约州和旧金山)癌症发病率的应用说明了该方法。并对今后的研究方向进行了讨论。
Analysis of age-specific trajectories of cancer incidence rates for all sites combined ( data source: International Agency for Research on Cancer) reveals a leveling-off and decline of the rates at old ages in different countries and time periods. We apply a nonlinear age-period-cohort model ( James and Segal 1982) to obtain declining cancer incidence rates at old ages. The age effects are represented by a power function of age in accordance with a multistage model of carcinogenesis ( Armitage and Doll 1954). Applications to cancer incidence in England and Wales, Japan ( Miyagi prefecture) and the USA ( New York State and San Francisco) illustrate the approach. Further topics of research are discussed.