Identifying adolescents at risk for hard drug use: Racial/ethnic variations
Identifying adolescents at risk for hard drug use: Racial/ethnic variations
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DOI：
10.1016/s1054-139x(98)00144-x
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发表时间：
1999-12-01
影响因子：
7.6
通讯作者：
Morton, SC
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ellickson, PL;Morton, SC
目的：以来自不同高中和社区的青少年为样本，检查 10 年级开始使用硬性毒品的早期风险因素，比较不同种族/族裔群体的结果，并根据更复杂的逻辑模型评估用户友好型风险量表的预测性能。方法：使用来自加利福尼亚州和俄勒冈州 4347 名青少年的纵向数据，我们开发并交叉验证了逻辑和添加剂 针对非西班牙裔白人学生（最大的群体）建立了预测模型，并评估了每个模型对黑人、西班牙裔和亚洲青少年的效果。我们还为每组开发了最佳逻辑模型，预测变量在 7 年级进行测量；硬性毒品使用结果在 10 年级进行测量。 结果：开始使用硬性毒品的主要危险因素包括过早吸食大麻和香烟、异常行为、亲子沟通不良、被提供毒品等。前体药物的态度和意图。白人青少年的危险因素最多，其次是西班牙裔、亚洲裔和黑人。特定的风险因素对于某些群体比其他群体发挥着更重要的作用。早期吸食大麻为除黑人以外的所有群体提供了最强烈的警告信号，而接触毒品则增加了除西班牙裔青少年以外的所有人的风险。与父母的沟通不畅对于西班牙裔和亚洲青少年来说尤其重要，而在学校表现不佳只是亚洲青少年的一个关键预测因素。使用毒品的社会影响和使用毒品的意图是黑人的唯一预测因素。尽管家庭破裂和父母教育有限与白人青少年的风险增加有关，但后者对西班牙裔和黑人产生相反的影响。在预测除黑人以外的各群体的硬性毒品使用方面，简单的加性模型几乎与最复杂的逻辑模型一样有效。结论：这些结果表明，抑制过早开始吸食大麻和香烟以及减少前药影响和态度可能会抑制大多数青少年开始吸食其他物质。他们还建议，毒品预防计划需要对不同种族/族裔群体的差异保持敏感，并且使用社会背景特征作为风险指标可能会产生很大的误导。基于简单的附加模型精心构建的风险量表可以帮助指导项目开发，并为临床医生提供有关问题青少年可能发展轨迹的有用信息。 (C) 青少年医学协会 1999 年。
Purpose: To examine early risk factors for initiation of hard drug use by 10th grade in a sample of adolescents drawn from diverse high schools and communities, compares the results across different racial/ethnic groups, and to evaluate the predictive performance of a user-friendly risk scale against the more complex logistic model.Methods: Using longitudinal data from 4347 adolescents from California and Oregon, we developed and cross-validated logistic and additive prediction models for non-Hispanic white students (the largest group) and assessed how well each model worked for black, Hispanic, and Asian adolescents. We also developed a best logistic model for each group, Predictor variables were measured at Grade 7; the hard drug use outcome was measured at Grade 10.Results: Major risk factors for initiation of hard drug use included early marijuana and cigarette use, deviant behavior, poor parent-child communication, being offered drugs, and. prodrug attitudes and intentions. White adolescents had the most risk factors, followed, by Hispanics, Asians, and Blacks. Specific risk factors played more important roles for some groups than others. Early marijuana use provided the strongest warning signal for all groups except Blacks, while exposure to drug offers increased the risk for all but Hispanic youth. Poor communication with parents was particularly important for Hispanic and Asian adolescents, whereas doing poorly in school was a key predictor only for Asians. social influences to use drugs and intentions to use them were the only predictors for Blacks. Although family disruption and limited parental education were associated with an increase in risk for white adolescents, the latter had the opposite effect for Hispanics and Blacks. The simple additive model worked almost as well as the most complicated logistic model in predicting hard drug use for each group except Blacks.Conclusions: These results suggest that curbing early initiation of marijuana and cigarettes and reducing prodrug influences and attitudes may dampen initiation of other substances for most youth. They also suggest that drug prevention programs need to be sensitive to differences across racial/ethnic groups and that using social background characteristics as indicators of risk can be very misleading. Carefully constructed risk scales based on simple additive models could help guide program development and provide clinicians with useful information about a troubled adolescent's likely trajectory. (C) Society for Adolescent Medicine 1999.