Reflections on the use of Bayesian belief networks for adaptive management.
Reflections on the use of Bayesian belief networks for adaptive management.
复制标题
关于使用贝叶斯信念网络进行自适应管理的思考。
DOI：
10.1016/j.jenvman.2007.05.009
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发表时间：
2008
影响因子：
8.7
通讯作者：
H. C. Barlebo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
H. J. Henriksen;H. C. Barlebo
目前有一系列广泛的工具可用于水资源综合管理。在欧盟的研究项目NeWater中，存在着一种假设，即除非目前的管理制度向适应性管理过渡，否则水资源综合管理就无法实现。这包括一个结构化的学习过程，处理复杂性，不确定性等，我们认为这是不够的管理人员和工具研究人员了解的复杂性和不确定性的外部自然系统的环境。同样重要的是，在使用特定工具和程序进行环境管理时，了解水管理人员、不同利益攸关方、主管部门和研究人员之间复杂和不确定的参与进程中发生了什么。本文回顾了2001年至2004年进行的案例研究，其中的工具贝叶斯网络（BN）进行了测试，地下水管理与利益相关者的充分参与。参与的两名研究人员（作者）和两个水管理人员以前参与的案例研究，定性访谈准备和进行了2006年6月。这一事后评价的目的是捕捉和探索水资源管理人员的经验与贝叶斯信念网络时，用于综合和适应性的水资源管理，并提供一个叙述性的方法来增强工具。
A broad range of tools are available for integrated water resource management (IWRM). In the EU research project NeWater, a hypothesis exists that IWRM cannot be realised unless current management regimes undergo a transition toward adaptive management (AM). This includes a structured process of learning, dealing with complexity, uncertainty etc. We assume that it is no longer enough for managers and tool researchers to understand the complexity and uncertainty of the outer natural system—the environment. It is just as important, to understand what goes on in the complex and uncertain participatory processes between the water managers, different stakeholders, authorities and researchers when a specific tool and process is used for environmental management. The paper revisits a case study carried out 2001–2004 where the tool Bayesian networks (BNs) was tested for groundwater management with full stakeholder involvement. With the participation of two researchers (the authors) and two water managers previously involved in the case study, a qualitative interview was prepared and carried out in June 2006. The aim of this ex-post evaluation was to capture and explore the water managers’ experience with Bayesian belief networks when used for integrated and adaptive water management and provide a narrative approach for tool enhancement.