Modelling the long-run economic impact of leaving the European Union
Modelling the long-run economic impact of leaving the European Union
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DOI：
10.1016/j.econmod.2016.06.020
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发表时间：
2016-12
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Monique Ebell;I. Hurst;James Warren
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Monique Ebell;I. Hurst;James Warren
我们使用国家研究所的大规模结构性全球计量经济模型NiGEM来模拟离开欧盟对英国经济的长期影响。我们研究了英国与欧盟没有自由贸易协定的情况，重点关注四个关键冲击：英国在欧盟成员国的出口市场份额永久减少，关税增加，外国直接投资流入永久减少以及英国对欧盟预算的预计净贡献的遣返。我们校准的冲击的大小上的学术证据的合成。我们解释了这四种冲击是如何在NiGEM中实现的，以及研究它们通过模型传播的关键机制。出口市场份额渠道是退出欧盟导致GDP和消费相对于长期基线下降的主要机制，在GDP相对于基线2.7%的预计总下降中，GDP相对于基线值的长期下降占2.1%。
We model the long-term implications of leaving the EU for the UK economy using NiGEM, the National Institute's large scale structural global econometric model. We examine a scenario in which the UK has no free trade agreement with the EU, focusing on four key shocks: a permanent reduction in the size of the UK's export market share in EU member countries, an increase in tariffs, a permanent reduction in inward FDI flows and the repatriation of the UK's projected net contributions to the EU budget. We calibrate the size of the shocks on a synthesis of the academic evidence. We explain how each of these four shocks is implemented in NiGEM, as well as examining the key mechanisms by which they are propagated through the model. The export market share channel is the main mechanism by which leaving the EU leads to declines in GDP and consumption relative to the long-run baseline, accounting for a long-run decline in GDP of 2.1% relative to the baseline value, out of a total projected reduction in GDP relative to the baseline of 2.7%.