A spatiodynamic model for assessing frost risk in south‐eastern Australia
A spatiodynamic model for assessing frost risk in south‐eastern Australia
复制标题
评估澳大利亚东南部霜冻风险的空间动力学模型
DOI：
10.1111/rssc.12103
复制
发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Huidong Jin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
K. Bakar;P. Kokic;Huidong Jin
先前的气候研究得出结论，导致澳大利亚东南部霜冻风险变化的因果影响包括温室气体浓度，厄尔尼诺南方涛动和其他影响。代表这些影响的一些气候指数具有时空错位，可能对观测数据产生时空变化的影响。其他指数是从网格参考物理模型构建的，这会产生一个点到面的问题。为了解决这些问题，我们使用的空间动态模型，它包括一个混合的空间变化和时间动态参数。对于我们检查的数据，与时空模型相比，所提出的模型在样本外验证中表现良好。
Previous climate research concluded that causal influences which have contributed to changes in frost risk in south‐eastern Australia include greenhouse gas concentration, El‐Niño southern oscillation and other effects. Some of the climatic indices representing these effects have spatiotemporal misalignment and may have a spatially and temporally varying effect on observed data. Other indices are constructed from grid‐referenced physical models, which creates a point‐to‐area problem. To address these issues we use a spatiodynamic model, which comprises a blending of spatially varying and temporally dynamic parameters. For the data that we examine the model proposed performs well in out‐of‐sample validation compared with a spatiotemporal model.
影响因子：
2.1
作者：
Szpiro, Adam A.;Sheppard, Lianne;Lumley, Thomas
通讯作者：
Lumley, Thomas