Determinants of violent and property crimes in England and Wales: a panel data analysis
Determinants of violent and property crimes in England and Wales: a panel data analysis
复制标题
DOI：
10.1080/00036846.2013.806782
复制
发表时间：
2013-12-01
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Bhattacharya, Samrat
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Han, Lu;Bandyopadhyay, Siddhartha;Bhattacharya, Samrat
我们通过使用1992年至2008年期间英格兰和威尔士的警察部队区域水平（PFA）数据来检查财产和暴力犯罪的各种决定因素。我们列出的潜在决定因素包括两个执法变量，即特定犯罪的侦破率和监狱人口，以及各种社会经济变量，如失业率、实际收入、年轻人比例和基尼系数。通过采用固定效应动态GMM估计方法，我们试图解决由于PFA的时不变未观察特征和几个回归量的内禀性而产生的潜在偏差。自身落后的犯罪率有显著的积极影响。平均而言，财产犯罪的自身滞后效应强于暴力犯罪。我们发现，平均而言，较高的检出率和监狱人口导致较低的财产和暴力犯罪。这是健壮的各种规格。然而，除实际收入外，社会经济变量在解释不同犯罪类型方面的作用有限。
We examine various determinants of property and violent crimes by using police force area level (PFA) data on England and Wales over the period of 1992-2008. Our list of potential determinants includes two law enforcement variables namely crime-specific detection rate and prison population, and various socio-economic variables such as unemployment rate, real earnings, proportion of young people and the Gini Coefficient. By adopting a fixed effect dynamic GMM estimation methodology we attempt to address the potential bias that arises from the presence of time-invariant unobserved characteristics of a PFA and the endogeneity of several regressors. There is a significant positive effect of own-lagged crime rate. The own-lagged effect is stronger for property crime, on an average, than violent crime. We find that, on an average, higher detection rate and prison population leads to lower property and violent crimes. This is robust to various specifications. However, socio-economic variables with the exception of real earnings play a limited role in explaining different crime types.