Poleward expansion of mangroves is a threshold response to decreased frequency of extreme cold events
Poleward expansion of mangroves is a threshold response to decreased frequency of extreme cold events
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1315800111
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发表时间：
2014-01-14
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Feller, Ilka C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cavanaugh, Kyle C.;Kellner, James R.;Feller, Ilka C.
与气候变化相关的区域变暖与全世界物种和生态系统的范围和丰度的改变有关。然而，极端事件发生频率的变化对生态的影响，特别是对沿海和海洋环境的影响，还没有得到很好的记录。我们使用了28年的卫星图像来证明红树林的面积在佛罗里达东海岸的历史范围的北方端翻了一番。这种扩张与“极端”寒冷事件（低于-4摄氏度的天数）频率的减少有关，但与年平均温度，年平均降水量和土地利用的变化无关。我们的分析提供了阈值响应的证据，与频率下降的严重寒冷的冬季事件允许向极地扩张的红树林。未来的变暖可能导致红树林覆盖面的增加，超出红树林目前的纬度界限，从而改变这些重要的沿海生态系统的结构和功能。
Regional warming associated with climate change is linked with altered range and abundance of species and ecosystems worldwide. However, the ecological impacts of changes in the frequency of extreme events have not been as well documented, especially for coastal and marine environments. We used 28 y of satellite imagery to demonstrate that the area of mangrove forests has doubled at the northern end of their historic range on the east coast of Florida. This expansion is associated with a reduction in the frequency of "extreme" cold events (days colder than -4 degrees C), but uncorrelated with changes in mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation, and land use. Our analyses provide evidence for a threshold response, with declining frequency of severe cold winter events allowing for poleward expansion of mangroves. Future warming may result in increases in mangrove cover beyond current latitudinal limits of mangrove forests, thereby altering the structure and function of these important coastal ecosystems.