COVID-19 virus outbreak forecasting of registered and recovered cases after sixty day lockdown in Italy: A data driven model approach
COVID-19 virus outbreak forecasting of registered and recovered cases after sixty day lockdown in Italy: A data driven model approach
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jmii.2020.04.004
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发表时间：
2020-06-01
影响因子：
7.4
通讯作者：
Amenta, Francesco
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chintalapudi, Nalini;Battineni, Gopi;Amenta, Francesco
背景资料：截至2020年3月31日，意大利确诊105，792例COVID-19病例，包括15，726例死亡，这解释了疫情对该国的影响有多严重。于二零二零年三月九日意大利宣布封城后，情况自三月最后几天开始趋于稳定。有鉴于此，重要的是要预测COVID-19对意大利状况的评估以及可能的影响，如果封锁可能再持续60天。方法：COVID-19感染患者数据摘自意大利卫生部网站，包括2月中旬至3月底的登记和康复病例。结果：登记病例模型的预测准确率为93.75%，恢复病例模型的预测准确率为84.4%。5月底，预测感染病例可达182,757例，治愈病例可达81,635例。结论：本研究通过数据驱动模型分析，强调了国家封锁和自我隔离在控制意大利人群疾病传播中的重要性。我们的研究结果表明，登记病例减少近35%，康复病例增加66%是可能的。版权所有（C）2020，台湾微生物学会。由爱思唯尔台湾有限公司出版。
Background: Till 31 March 2020, 105,792 COVID-19 cases were confirmed in Italy including 15,726 deaths which explains how worst the epidemic has affected the country. After the announcement of lockdown in Italy on 9 March 2020, situation was becoming stable since last days of March. In view of this, it is important to forecast the COVID-19 evaluation of Italy condition and the possible effects, if this lock down could continue for another 60 days.Methods: COVID-19 infected patient data has extracted from the Italian Health Ministry website includes registered and recovered cases from mid February to end March. Adoption of seasonal ARIMA forecasting package with R statistical model was done.Results: Predictions were done with 93.75% of accuracy for registered case models and 84.4% of accuracy for recovered case models. The forecasting of infected patients could be reach the value of 182,757, and recovered cases could be registered value of 81,635 at end of May.Conclusions: This study highlights the importance of country lockdown and self isolation in control the disease transmissibility among Italian population through data driven model analysis. Our findings suggest that nearly 35% decrement of registered cases and 66% growth of recovered cases will be possible. Copyright (C) 2020, Taiwan Society of Microbiology. Published by Elsevier Taiwan LLC.